Welcome back for the final edition of PortuGOAL’s three-part series offering you a look at how some of Portugal’s best players have performed in the first half of the 2015/16 season. Having looked at the most promising candidates in defence and midfield, Nathan Motz will now turn his attention to the most vexing division of Portugal’s 4-3-3 formation: the front three.
Join him as he delves into the complex, frustrating, and often controversial discussion concerning the right blend of attacking talent that should accompany Cristiano Ronaldo at this summer’s Euro 2016 finals in France.
Rather than churn out yet another obvious commentary on Portugal’s longstanding absence of capable strikers, I would like to re-orient the discussion by simply focusing on the question: where will the goals come from for the Seleção? Clearly, the Portuguese national team cannot say at this moment in time that there exists a target-man capable of plowing the lone furrow at the cutting edge of our 4-3-3. At least, not one who has demonstrated his competence in any of Europe’s top leagues.
This fact, while unavoidable and lamentable, is not the end of the story, however. The Seleção still possesses real quality on the wings, and it is here, from the margins of the pitch, that Portugal’s goalscoring exploits will likely find their origin. Of course, this is not new information for the avid Portugal supporter. Still, it is important for me to concede (before I even begin to assess the individual players) that this is yet another tournament in which our central midfield and wingers will need to carry the attacking burden. There is no other way at this moment in time.
The leading candidates for selection
Cristiano Ronaldo, unsurprisingly, will be expected by many to deliver superhuman performances this summer. When you look at the raw numbers, this expectation becomes more understandable. Ronaldo will be 31 yrs old next month, but has still contributed 27 goals and 10 assists in all matches (26) this season. All of those came against La Liga and UCL opposition since Madrid were disqualified from the Copa del Rey. These statistics become even more unreal when you consider that his overall form (by this I mean his overall standard of play) has been somewhat inconsistent. His productivity exceeds that of most of the other attacking players in this article combined.
Rather than bemoan our dependency on Ronaldo, I will contend that Ronaldo is still in the kind of form that can win this squad the European Championship…if he is utilized effectively. Those who have read my work in the past may remember that I am not a fan of Ronaldo’s employment as a central striker. My fear is that in this tournament, Fernando Santos, having observed Portugal’s lack of options, may decide to use Ronaldo as our Number 9. In my opinion, the end result of that choice would be something similar to what we saw in 2010 under Carloz Quieroz. For those who need reminding, we scored seven goals in one of our four matches, and zero goals in the other three, bowing out rather timidly in the Round of 16. Simply put, we need Ronaldo to create from the wing.
In spite of the young, talented wingers at our disposal, we still need Cristiano to be more connected to central midfield than he would be as a striker. In the end, teams are hoping we play Ronaldo as a striker so they can cut off passing lanes and stifle his influence. Ronaldo might be effective as a striker for Real, but for Portugal the circumstances are not the same. Different supporting cast, different tactics, different opposition, and on, and on.
For those that are concerned about over-reliance on Ronaldo, just remember how many nations would kill to have him. When we ask the question about where our goals will come from, it has to be reassuring that we have literally the best pure goalscorer at this tournament. Imagine how difficult it is for Austria, Iceland, and Hungary to face that. Where will their goals come from?
But with all due respect, Ronaldo cannot win this tournament on his own. We still need more firepower. Moving across Europe to the Turkish Super Lig, two likely candidates for inclusion in Santos’ final squad are Nani and Ricardo Quaresma. Both are in decent form, and both have more experience with the Seleção than the other players in this discussion. Nani has scored 8 goals and chipped in 7 assists in 27 matches for Fenerbahce, while Quaresma has scored 4 and assisted 4 in 22 matches for Besiktas. There are obvious concerns for both of these players, but it is encouraging to see them finding the back of the net even if the competition they face is weaker. Of the two, Nani’s form and club circumstances favor him for the starting role. Quaresma will not participate in any European competition while Nani will be in Europa League action against Lokomotiv Moscow next month. Quaresma is also older than Nani, but his last few performances for the Seleção have featured some decent crosses that led to winning goals. Santos is most likely to start Nani in my opinion, but I think Quaresma could have a role to play in this tournament if he improves his form in the second half of the season. Who wouldn’t want love to see Quaresma bend in the perfect trivela cross for Ronaldo to score the winning goal in the tournament finals this summer?
In Russia, Miguel Danny continues to feature for Zenit St. Petersburg. Through 24 matches this term, Danny has scored 5 times and has 6 assists to his name. These numbers look even better when you consider that he was employed as a central midfielder (#10) in 18 of those matches. Furthermore, Danny will play Champions League football with Zenit in the second half of the season, which is a huge advantage. Even so, his influence on Portugal’s style of play has always been muted, and it is difficult to say whether that is more because of his attitude, or because he is played out of position.
As a winger, Danny is clearly not in his element. Rather than drive to the byline and deliver crosses, Danny really enjoys sitting in the hole behind the striker, acting as a fulcrum for the attack, and getting forward into the penalty area at every opportunity. For Portugal, the #10 role is not as crucial because the 4-3-3 concentrates the attacking momentum on the wings. This limits the effectiveness of a player like Danny because his skillset is not postured for that style of play. Whether he features in France or not will likely depend on whether Santos finds his particular capabilities more appealing than some of the other natural wingers discussed in this article. Still, we need him to continue doing what he’s doing for Zenit so that we have another option if needed. Regardless of what supporters may think, his experience with the Seleção makes him an almost automatic selection if he continues his good form at a Champions League-quality club like Zenit.
One of the more exciting revelations this season has been the dynamic play of 20 yr old Gelson Martins. The Sporting winger has been in prolific form reminiscent even of the way that Cristiano Ronaldo broke out as a teenager. With 5 goals and 4 assists through 27 matches this season, Martins has already equaled Ronaldo’s best ever season at Sporting in terms of statistics (2002-03, 18 yr old Ronaldo scored 5 times). Though not always a first choice selection, his electric play certainly makes him an attractive candidate for Fernando Santos’ final squad. I do wonder though if his age and lack of experience will prevent him from being taken seriously. Santos has shown a desire to make changes, but Martins is still a very raw talent, and it has been a long time since a player his age has cemented his status on the wing. Still, in asking where the goals will come from this summer, you have to appreciate the fact that Martins can finish, and that his pace alone will always create problems for any fullback assigned to defend him.
If his form stays the same or improves, I honestly think it would be possible to see him opposite Nani with Ronaldo as our central striker this summer. I may not approve of Ronaldo as the Number 9, but I do think Santos may be interested in trying it out if Martins (or another of our wingers) can effectively create from the wing.
Bernardo Silva has featured 30 times in all competitions for Monaco this season, contributing 3 goals and 2 assists. After his breakout season last year, Bernardo has not played badly, but it must be said that this season does not represent much progress. Part of that might be because of his more frequent use on the right wing than in central midfield (as a #10). Like Danny, Bernardo Silva is not at his best on the wing (in my opinion). His physical build limits him somewhat in this capacity since wingers need breakaway speed and power to get down the channels and deliver crosses. Bernardo usually cuts his runs short, drifts inside, and tries to find passing options there. If he is to succeed on the wing for Portugal, he’ll need to demonstrate his ability to “add width” to his game and deliver better crosses into the box.
With all of the central midfield options that I discussed in part 2 of this series, I think it is unlikely that Bernardo will find a place there. But his inclusion on the wing is really dependent on how well he can develop that particular skillset. Again, Bernardo is a very talented player that I am very fond of, but I do wonder if his specific qualities may hurt him in finding his place within the 4-3-3. His offensive productivity will also need to improve if he wants to become anything more than a substitute at this tournament. Furthermore, Bernardo Silva will not have opportunities to test his skill in European competition since Monaco was eliminated from the UEL.
For those that might think this is a harsh assessment, just remember that I do believe he can become a special player, but he still must adapt to the position that Portugal (and Fernando Santos) are asking him to play. Whether or not he can do that remains to be seen.
Another young talent that I think may really be going places is Rafa Silva. The Braga winger has demonstrated his eye for goal with five already to go along with seven assists in 27 matches. In addition to his youth experience, he does have four senior caps for Portugal, and will headline Braga's Europa League campaign next month. In addition to his strong bid for a place at the Euros, he is also age-requirement eligible for the Olympics too. While it is still difficult for me to imagine him dislodging Nani from his starting berth on the right wing, I think he will have at least a chance of getting some playing time on the left wing if Ronaldo is made our central striker. A lot of that depends on whether he gets playing time in the March friendlies and the pre-tournament matches in May that have yet to be announced. He certainly is not hurting his chances by playing as well as he is, but the wing position is very competitive even if Ronaldo is our central striker, and he needs to continue to unveil his goalscoring acumen if he is to out-compete Gelson, Danny, and Quaresma.
There are two central strikers, Eder and Nelson Oliveira, that will also find a place in the final 23-man roster for Euro 2016. To what extent they will be used depends on Santos’ tactical arrangement. If Ronaldo is our striker, they will not see the pitch at all in France (barring injury). If Ronaldo is played on the wing, it is possible that one or both may get significant playing time. Of the two, Nelson has better numbers (7 goals, 1 assist), but plays in the English Championship (second division) while Eder competes in the Premier League. Unfortunately, injuries and poor form have hurt Eder’s chances, and the 28 yr old has yet to score for Swansea City this season.
The nine players discussed above are most likely to feature for Portugal this summer in some capacity. The responsibility for goals this summer will fall most heavily on them, and they are the players best positioned to meet that demand.
Honorable mentions
The remaining candidates are either more likely to be unused substitutes or may miss the Euros altogether, but have the opportunity to feature at the Olympics in August.
I really like Iuri Medeiros’ progress this season on loan from Sporting to Moreirense. The 21 yr old has already scored 6 times and added 5 assists in only 17 matches so far this term. From his favored position on the right wing, he has certainly demonstrated improvement from last season, and is well poised to star for Portugal at the Olympics. His selection for Euro 2016 is compromised at this point because he has yet to earn his first senior cap.
Gonçalo Paciencia is a true striker that will hope to build on his sharp performances for the U21 side. For Academica, he has scored 3 times and contributed 3 assists in 18 matches this season. At 21 yrs old, it is unclear at this point how far his talent will carry him, but he will also have an opportunity to test himself this summer at the Olympics. The next couple of club seasons will be crucial for his career.
Monaco features two more attacking players in Helder Costa and Ivan Cavaleiro. The latter already has two senior caps while the former has steadily moved up the ranks of the Portugal youth squads, scoring 3 goals in 6 matches for the U21 team. Costa has scored three goals and has an assist in 11 matches while Cavaleiro has 2 goals in 16 matches for Monaco this term. Both are 22 years old, and when I watch them play I still see an element of positional indiscipline that affects their overall performances. As any player ages, the awareness of when to make the run and when to hold, when to shoot and when to pass, and other tactical nuances become more of a feature for him. This ability to read the flow of the game is still not keen enough in either of these players to make them a viable option for the senior side at the moment. Also, because they both most often feature on the left wing for Monaco, they face a lot of competition for a place in the Seleção.
There are other options that have not been discussed, but in the interest of conserving space I opted not to assess Bruma, Marcos Lopes, Ricardo Pereira, Ricardo Horta, Pizzi, or André Silva. These players may indeed have an outside chance of making the squad, but in my personal opinion they will not see the pitch in France unless there are significant injuries. With the exception of Pizzi, it is likely that all of them will be in Brazil for the Olympics, and there is plenty of reason to be excited about that.
Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the criteria I am using for rating these players is a diverse combination of factors that I admit are subjective in nature. I look at goals/assists, matches played (and matches started), overall influence on the match (hours of film study), the quality of opposition/competition, etc… I am also planning another series at the end of this club season that will provide a final evaluation of Portuguese talent before the Euros.
I would like to bring this series to a close by thanking our readers, and reminding all of you that PortuGOAL is looking forward to providing special coverage for Euro 2016, more to follow on that in the near future.
by Nathan Motz
