Seleção Injury Review

Seleção Injury Review

Evaluating the potential impact of injuries on Portugal’s Euro 2016 ambitions

With only a few more weeks to go until the start of Euro 2016, Portugal have been dealt another bitter blow as Santos did not include Bernardo Silva in his final squad because of injury. But the young Monaco playmaker is not the only one to miss the plane to France because of a physical malady.

Seleção correspondent, Nathan Motz, who will be on location in France this summer for PortuGOAL.net, assesses the impact of injuries to the squad, and discusses them alongside similar losses to key players incurred before other major tournaments.

Can injuries change the course of a nation’s major tournament campaign? Clearly they can as Portugal supporters learned two summers ago in Brazil, much to their chagrin.

But Ronaldo’s tendinosis problem in 2014 was not the only occurrence in recent memory of injuries wreaking havoc on our hopes and dreams of glory. Euro 2008 was similarly affected by Ronaldo’s ankle problem, an affliction that required surgery to repair as soon as Portugal were eliminated by Germany in the quarterfinals.

Many will remember Nani’s unfortunate shoulder injury that ruled him out of World Cup 2010 in South Africa. Pepe was also just returning from major knee surgery for that tournament, but he played anyway, albeit in an unorthodox holding midfield role. Even last month it appeared to be a case of déjà vu when Ronaldo came off injured against Villareal. Instead, Ronaldo rested for 2 weeks, scored 4 goals through his next three matches and will have two more weeks of rest before the UCL final. In contrast to 2014, Ronaldo’s timely injury looks as if it has given him the opportunity to enhance his fitness prior to Euro 2016.

Danny

This year, Portugal are deprived of 4 key players in Tiago, Bernardo Silva, Fábio Coentrão, and Danny. First, I would like to make a few sympathetic comments regarding Danny. The Zenit midfielder has had, by all accounts, the most unfortunate of careers with Portugal. Since his Seleção debut in August 2008, Danny has featured in 37 matches scoring 4 goals, all while been forced to play out of his natural position as a central playmaker. One of the primary reasons for this has been the consistent under-appreciation of his creative talent.

For the World Cup in 2010, Quieroz only wanted a winger to complement Ronaldo (and replace Nani) because he was unwilling to consider moving away from the 4-3-3. Danny was able to beat Simão Sabrosa for the job as a result of some decent performances in Portugal’s pre-tournament matches. But during the World Cup he could not have been more anonymous. Bento also unwaveringly preferred the 4-3-3, and again Danny’s performances suffered on the wing until his first cruciate ligament rupture ruled him out of Euro 2012 entirely.

The loss of Danny to injury did not significantly impede our progress in Euro 2012, and I have no reason to believe the situation will be any different this time around. Still, when I look at Danny’s statistics for Zenit St. Petersburg (241 matches, 64 goals, 72 assists from the #10 position, mind you), I feel that over the course of the last 6-7 years, Portugal may have missed out on a big opportunity. At 32, Danny is unlikely to feature again for Portugal.

Tiago

Likewise, the injury to Tiago likely takes him to the end of his international career with the possibility that he will be included as an over-age player at the Olympics in Brazil. And as is the case with Danny, Tiago’s loss is not as damaging because of the explosion of talent in midfield. While I cannot overlook his influential role in the masterful Atletico Madrid sides of the last 2-3 years, I also cannot isolate any one of his attributes for which we will not be able to compensate. Danilo brings the gritty determination, Moutinho the experience, Andre Gomes the technical ability, and so on.

In a career that stretches back to November 2002, Tiago somehow only played in three major tournaments, scoring 3 goals in 66 matches. The midfielder, who announced today a 1 year extension on his contract with Atletico Madrid, will go down as another player who had more to offer the Seleção than will ever be fully realized.

Bernardo Silva

Looking back at the 2010 World Cup, Nani’s loss was significant. You may recall that his form at Manchester United was actually quite strong prior to the tournament. In 34 matches of the 09/10 season, Nani scored 6 times and contributed 15 assists. Portugal simply did not have the right youth/talent mixture in Simão or experience in Danny to cope without him. With the exception of the match against North Korea, the offense was as stale as it had been at any moment since the 1990’s.

The loss of Bernardo Silva would have been equally hard to take if it had occurred within the 2010 generation of the Seleção. Today, the impact is diminished somewhat by several factors. First, Santos’ willingness to implement a 4-4-2 takes some of the burden off our wingers. With Nani and Ronaldo rotating at the top of the formation as a false-striker-duo, Bernardo Silva would likely have been utilized as a right side attacking midfielder. Whoever replaces him, be it Rafa Silva or Andre Gomes, will ultimately have less responsibility than they would have had in a 4-3-3.

What we will miss is Bernardo’s incisive runs. Unlike Nani, who despite his mesmerizing footwork can be hesitant in his approach, Silva is a direct runner that can also apply the killer finish as he demonstrated against Marseille last month. Though he does struggle with consistency (his overall numbers are down from last season with 7 goals and 3 assists in 44 matches), Bernardo Silva really could have used this tournament to cut out his future role with Portugal. 

But the second reason why the impact of his injury is less significant is because of the emergence of players like João Mário. The Sporting midfielder also scored 7 goals, but added 12 assists in the more competitive Liga NOS. He too is a direct runner, but what I really think sets him apart from Bernardo Silva is his crossing ability. In Portugal’s latest friendly against Belgium, João Mário served up several tasty deliveries, one of which was thumped into the back of the net by Ronaldo.

Bernardo Silva needed to be at this tournament for his own personal development and because Portugal need incisive players who run well with the ball at their feet. But because João Mário is more at home on the margins of the pitch, I honestly believe Portugal will cope quite well with the loss of Bernardo Silva. Additionally, both André Gomes and Adrien Silva are capable of contributing goals from midfield.

Fábio Coentrão

Many may disagree with me, but I consider Fábio Coentrão’s injury to be the one we could have done without. Our back four is aging and Coentrão would have brought more energy and technical ability than Eliseu, and more experience than Guerreiro. Plus, Coentrão is Ronaldo’s partner-in-crime. In international play you cannot overemphasize the role that player relationships have on overall team performance. This is one of the reasons why Germany was so formidable in 2014. Half their players took the field together every match during the 2013/14 club season for Bayern Munich. When it was time to suit up for Germany, they already knew each other inside and out. No learning curve, no issues with team chemistry.

Ronaldo and Coentrão developed that kind of chemistry during their time together at Real Madrid. While Eliseu had the season of his career for a brilliant Benfica side, and Raphael Guerreiro is an up-and-comer in Ligue 1, no left back plays better for the Seleção than Coentrão. He was crucial for Monaco this season when he was healthy. In fact, one of the main reasons why Monaco failed to secure an automatic UCL berth was because of defensive instability. Monaco lost only 2 of the 12 matches in which Coentrão played the entire 90 minutes.

You need the right blend of youth and experience in international play, and without Coentrão Portugal are imbalanced. Paradoxically, Coentrão has more caps than Eliseu, Vierinha, Cedric, and Guerreiro combined. We simultaneously have too much age, and not enough experience at the fullback position.

Even so, this will be an opportunity for one of our fullbacks to have a breakout tournament similar to Coentrão at the 2010 World Cup. Ideally, that would be Guerreiro because of his future potential, but Santos appears to favour Eliseu at the present time. I will concede that Santos has built a fairly robust defence in spite of my reservations, but I wonder how Eliseu or Guerreiro will perform in a potential Round of 16 match-up with Italy, or a quarterfinal contest against England. This may be a tournament in which we have to outscore our opponents, an uncertain proposition to say the least.

All things considered, this squad has the potential to run riot in Group F. The knockout rounds are never easy, but Portugal’s path is negotiable if we win the group. Injuries aside, this group of players is talented enough to challenge for the European crown. I predict a semi-final date with France on 6 July in Lyon.  Even if Euro 2016 does not go as planned, the talented youth ranks bear the promise of greater things to come and joy for the legions of Seleção fans all over the world.

by Nathan Motz