Euro 2016 Impressions: Matchday 1 reflection

Matchday 1, over and done with. Some familiar feelings for me at this point, but also some oddities. As is their historical preference, Portugal labored against an opponent that they might feel they should have overwhelmed, but also gave away their first half lead.

Statistically, it’s an anomalous result as Portugal have only drawn 7 of 77 matches in the last 10 years after taking the lead.

But Iceland earned it, didn’t they? And that’s certainly familiar, because not so long ago it was Portugal breaking onto the international scene, punching above our weight and wrestling decent results from more illustrious opposition. Euro 2000 springs to mind when Portugal went undefeated in Group A, knocking out England and Germany in the process.

As the football story focuses on the tiny island nation and their extraordinary progress, I think it important to reflect on matters outside of football that are perhaps more significant.

No fan violence in St. Etienne between Portugal and Iceland fans, and thus far no terrorist activity has disrupted this tournament. That’s certainly something worth celebrating, as I’d sure hate to miss out on scenes like these (below). That view is from the back porch of our chalet. I know, life is rough, but somebody has to do the dirty work.

The Group of Death is not always so harrowing and straightforward groups are not so straightforward. Maybe that’s the best lesson we all need to remember about football. Studies have shown that among the world’s major sports, it is football that is most difficult to predict. In American football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, there is a large statistical divergence in results between the teams that are better on paper and the underdog.

When football matches are averaged together over the course of seasons and seasons worth of data, only a little over 50% are won by teams that are expected to win. Furthermore, teams that have more shots on target only win 50-58% of the time (depending on which competition is used to generate the figures). There are no guarantees in this sport whatsoever.

Fernando Santos and the players, while chastened by the outcome against Iceland, are not despondent and without answer. They head back to Marcoussis knowing that better results are within their grasp.

And we’ll be heading out with them. Tomorrow we’ll rest before traveling to Paris. Austria vs Portugal promises to be another thrilling encounter, and may prove decisive for both team’s tournament ambitions, for better or worse.

Portugal’s campaign, its twists and turns, its familiarities and aberrations, its joy and despair, vows to inspire greater admiration and respect, not just for the squad, but for the game of football itself.

In the post-match press conference, I asked Santos if the result against Iceland would motivate the players to perform even better in the remaining group matches. Santos smiled and responded:

“Yes, I think so. Obviously we didn’t play a brilliant game, but the first game is always difficult. The team knows what it wants, it’s confident, and I am convinced the team will give an excellent response in the next games.”   

It’s a concise summary. Portugal are moving on to the next task: Austria. At the end of the first matchday, Portugal lead all teams in the tournament in pass completion % and total attempts (33% more shots than the second placed team, Germany), and are second in possession behind Spain (66%).

Better things are sure to come.

by Nathan Motz