It was everything. Infuriating, dramatic, scarcely believable at times, but Portugal managed to scrape through Group F with three draws, a feat that would not have been possible under the old Euro format.
And now, Croatia. But before we make any more predictions that turn out to be completely false, we need to assess the best and the worst of our Group F tribulations. Only then can we consider the way ahead.
Top Performers
In discussions I’ve had with other sports writers at this tournament, one theme that keeps coming back is that there is a real lack of consistency in terms of player performances. Cristiano Ronaldo played two of his most subpar performances ever in a Portugal shirt only to score a stunning brace and provide the assist for Nani’s goal against Hungary.
William was excellent against Austria, but gave the ball away carelessly against the Magyars. Pepe has been all over the place. Vierinha’s form hasn’t been awful, but it isn’t exceptional either, especially going forward. He was also caught out badly for Iceland’s equalizer. João Mário was superb against Hungary, but was barely noticeable against Iceland and Austria (sub appearance).
For me, Raphael Guerreiro was our overall best player through the first two matches, as evidenced by the sharp drop in quality when Eliseu took his place against Hungary (injury concerns). In his absence, Portugal lacked creativity on the left side of the pitch in the first half, necessitating a formation switch back to a 4-3-3 to sort things out.
Of our attacking players, Nani has been our most consistent, but there are caveats. Most notably his distinct drop-off in form during the second half of matches. Nani’s movement in the first half of these matches has been intelligent and purposeful. After the halftime break, he can’t seem to find the time and space on the ball that he had in the opening 45 minutes.
But given proper service he’s played reasonably well as a No9, and deserves credit for scoring two crucial goals that helped Portugal secure passage to the Round of 16. His attitude has also been more positive, and he was frequently seen urging the crowd on in difficult moments. Before the tournament, Nani was as unpopular a player as any on the squad with many suggesting he should not have made the plane at all. After the group stage, it’s clear that he is a key element to this squad’s chances of progression through the Euro 2016 knockout rounds.
Worst Performers
I won’t say there has been a single performance that stands out as truly awful, but there has been a general level of mediocrity that cannot go unnoticed. Defenders not closing down on the ball, poor decision making, careless clearances, reckless fouls, etc…
I suppose I would have to admit that I am most shocked by Pepe’s form in this tournament. Granted, he was worse at the 2014 World Cup, but that was a lapse in sanity we’re talking about. At Euro 2016, Pepe just doesn’t seem to be in control the way he normally does. For Real Madrid, he has such a command of the backline, and normally that translates to his play for the Seleção.
But in the group stage I’ve seen him make more hacked clearances, misplace more passes, and give away more needless free kicks than at any point in his Portugal career. True, he’s made some crucial interventions as well, but the astute decision-making and almost casual authority that he normally brings has been conspicuously absent.
João Moutinho. I love the diminutive Monaco playmaker for his great service to this squad over the years. We have all seen him play the type of pass that splits defences wide open, but his work-rate and ability to stitch together attacking movements have been a mainstay of our side since qualification for Euro 2012.
But if I’m objective, I have to admit that we have needed a different type of player in this tournament so far. What we have needed is a midfielder that can make penetrating runs, drawing defenders and creating chaos. We need a troublemaker, an energetic and physical dynamo that doesn’t allow the opposition so much time to focus on quelling the likes of Ronaldo and Nani. Moutinho is a lot of great things, but he most certainly is not that type of player.
I will always value Moutinho’s work for Portugal, but in this tournament it’s obvious that we need a danger man in midfield, and Moutinho hasn’t provided that threat in the group stage. Against Hungary, Renato Sanches came on in the second half and showed us how he can be the agent of chaos we need in midfield. As much as it pains me to say it, now is the time to make the transition.
The good, the bad, the ugly
All things considered, our attacking threat was one of the most awesome of any team at this tournament through the group stage. That we were unable to find the back of the net more often doesn’t change that fact.
Against Hungary, we converted three of six shots on goal, a far better ratio than the one of 17 that we had amassed in the matches against Iceland and Austria. Unfortunately, that cost us defensively as Hungary countered at pace and might have scored more than three goals were it not for Rui Patrício and the woodwork. Our profligacy in the first two matches aside, I don’t think any team will relish facing our potent attacking threat.
But Croatia will likely fancy their chances against a defence that was ruthlessly exposed by Hungary. I would still argue that the tactical advantage was always in favor of our opponents in the group stage. They knew they could defend well, and wait for a chance to hit us on the break. Iceland added a striking physicality to that formula, while Austria simply rode their luck.
The Hungarians were also somewhat fortunate to have two deflected shots end up in the back of the net, but they were effective in cutting through soft challenges and taking advantage of the amount of space afforded to them. The verdict is that we will not overcome Croatia if improvements aren’t made. Raphael Guerreiro can’t return soon enough.
Lastly, poor finishing made the difference for us in Group F. We had so many chances to win this group and took so precious few of them. It remains to be seen whether we can remain as clinical as we were against Hungary, or revert to our form vs Iceland and Austria. Were we fortunate to finish 3rd? Yes, in some ways, but you also have to say we were very unlucky not to score just one or two more goals to win Group F.
Against Croatia, Spain had numerous chances to put the game away and couldn’t convert them (including a saved penalty). It is essential that we capitalize on the opportunities that come our way in that match.
But at the end of the day, Portugal survived their profligacy, endured much public criticism, and fought back three times against Hungary to draw level, a significant feat that reveals the character of these players. Group F wasn’t pretty, but once again the Seleção did what was necessary to advance.
Looking ahead
Croatia have brought one of the most talented midfields to this tournament. They have a brilliant left back in Ivan Perisic and a decent striker in Mario Mandzukic. In terms of raw potential and based on their performances, it’s difficult to say there is a better overall squad at this Euros. They understandably lost their focus against the Czech Republic after the crowd disturbances in that match, but otherwise would have finished unbeaten.
Croatia will give us problems, that much is sure. The one unknown for Portugal is how we will play against a team that can very closely match us in terms of individual quality. Hungary were excellent coming forward, but only on the counterattack. How Portugal will respond to the more technically skillful Croatians remains to be seen.
As is the case in any major tournament, the masterpiece that Portugal are attempting to create is missing a few crucial pieces. Namely, our defensive liabilities and poor finishing stand out as genuine concerns that have to be corrected.
Predictions? I wouldn’t dare after our Group F ordeal except to say there will be drama, and lots of it. I said before the tournament that Portugal would compose another thrilling chapter in their history. What an understatement.
We played our best match so far against Austria, and drew. We played our worst match against Hungary, and drew that one as well. Combined with the draw against Iceland, you can see just how difficult it is to ascertain what this Portugal team is really capable of, and how far they'll go in these Euros.
Força Seleção.
by Nathan Motz
