Following the UEFA Champions League Group stage draw, SL Benfica would have felt unfortunate to have been placed into Group H alongside the heavyweights of Paris Saint-Germain and Juventus.
But Benfica have coasted through the group stage; a comfortable home victory against Maccabi Haifa was followed up by an impressive away win in Turin.
Next up the Lisbon-based side faced PSG in back-to-back fixtures and many had predicted that this would be the stage where they would begin to struggle.
PSG are one of the favourites to win the entire competition, offered at 13/2 in the Champions League odds, and are certainly expected to top Group H.
But Benfica played out two 1-1 draws with the Parisians and was fully deserving of the points they took away from the side boasting the talent of both Lionel Messi and Neymar Jr.
Benfica looks to be a solid unit in European competition offensively and defensively and now finds themselves in the Champions League predictions as narrow 15/8 outsiders to go on to win their group over PSG.
The Portuguese league leaders made the quarter-finals last season where they were defeated by Liverpool and, prior to the current campaign, were certainly not expected to repeat the feat.
Benfica lost a number of key players in the summer and this season, with new coach Roger Schmidt at the helm, was expected to represent a transitional period, bedding in numerous new signings and adopting a new philosophy.
David Neres joined from Shakhtar looking to revive his career after struggling for form, shortly before departing to the Ukrainian side from Ajax, and the Brazilian has made positive progress. The 25-year-old netted the winner against Juventus and has contributed 5 goals and 5 assists in 13 matches in all competitions.
But the signing of the summer for Benfica has been Enzo Fernández, the midfield dynamo taking to European football like duck to water after his transfer from River Plate.
Julian Draxler also joined on loan from PSG as Benfica seek to sign a blend of relatively unknown stars as well as misfits from some of Europe’s big clubs and they were certainly not expected to gel so quickly.
There you go! ? https://t.co/OsUE3cB4Qh pic.twitter.com/gH9WNperTz
— SL Benfica (@slbenfica_en) October 12, 2022
Domestic success is always the priority, especially as the Primeira Liga championship has escaped the Eagles for three years, but Benfica’s start to their UCL campaign shows they have the quality and mentality to compete with Europe’s top clubs - as well as the transitional threat to cause problems for possession-heavy sides.
They are extremely close to booking their place in the knockout stage for a second successive season; they will play Juventus in the final week of October knowing that if they avoid defeat then they are guaranteed to progress.
Benfica has a level head-to-head record with PSG after the back-to-back tied fixtures. To claim the all-important top spot in Group H the Portuguese team must accumulate more points in next week’s game against Juventus and their final match in Israel versus Maccabi Haifa than PSG manage in their final two games at home to Maccabi and away at Juventus – or achieve a superior goal difference.
The sides are currently both tied at a goal difference of plus three and PSG are sure to improve their total against Maccabi Haifa at home but their trip to Turin represents a difficult task in terms of returning with the three points.
Overall, Benfica looks almost certain to qualify and, as shown from the PSG and Juventus fixtures, can more than hold their own against top-quality opposition and could potentially beat anybody in the competition in the knockout stage.
Finishing first in the group would be a huge boost and would mean the likes of Manchester City and Bayern Munich could be avoided, as well as high-flying Napoli.
If Benfica could make it to the quarter-final stage successively it would demonstrate incredible progress for one of the giants of Portuguese football that until last season had disappointed in recent years in the Champions League.
