• 2026 World Cup
• 2025 Nations League

Portugal’s latest triumph in the UEFA Nations League over Spain has reignited global conversations about their potential to conquer the 2026 FIFA World Cup. With the tournament just a year away, speculation and oddsmakers are adjusting predictions. While traditional powerhouses like Argentina, Brazil, and France remain prominent in the conversation, Portugal’s evolving squad and recent silverware are compelling reasons to consider them serious contenders. This article dives deep into the top ten teams with the best odds of winning the next World Cup and how Portugal’s resurgence shifts the dynamics of international football.

Spain: +500

Spain currently holds the best odds to win the 2026 World Cup at +500. Their victory in the 2024 European Championship reinforced their dominance, particularly with standout players like Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams commanding the wings. Rodri, the 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, is expected to return from an ACL injury, adding balance to their midfield. However, their recent defeat to Portugal in the UEFA Nations League final exposed vulnerabilities. Spain’s only previous World Cup win came in 2010. With so much promise in youth and form, Spain remains a top contender, but Portugal’s win has complicated their narrative.

France: +600

France comes in second with +600 odds, boasting explosive pace and elite finishing from Kylian Mbappé, Désiré Doué, and 2025 Ballon d’Or favourite Ousmane Dembélé. Despite reaching consecutive World Cup finals in 2018 and 2022, they remain with only two titles in history. In the 2024 Euros, they fell to eventual champions Spain. Their defensive line, led by William Saliba and Theo Hernández, is formidable. France has shown consistency, but the sting of recent close calls and Portugal’s momentum adds new pressure. Among betting picks, France remains a solid but increasingly vulnerable choice.

Brazil: +650

Brazil leads the globe in World Cup titles with five, though they have not secured one since 2002. Their +650 odds reflect both their historic stature and present inconsistencies. The 2024 Copa America saw them ousted in the quarter-finals by Uruguay in a shootout, continuing a 22-year trophy drought. Vinícius Júnior’s rise to prominence — second in Ballon d’Or voting in 2024 — gives Brazil attacking edge. Richarlison is expected to be the lone striker, while Marquinhos anchors the defence. Despite world-class talent, their recent performances suggest that without cohesion, Brazil might fall short again.

England: +700

England’s lone World Cup title came in 1966. Their +700 odds mirror a mix of elite talent and historical underperformance. Jude Bellingham, fresh off a third-place finish in the 2024 Ballon d’Or vote, leads a dynamic midfield supported by Declan Rice. England came close in recent tournaments — losing the Euro 2021 final to Italy and the Euro 2024 final to Spain. Harry Kane, the nation’s top scorer, aims for one last shot at glory. Though the squad brims with skill, decades of heartbreak cast doubt on whether England can finally go all the way.

Argentina: +800

Argentina, the reigning World Cup champions, sit fifth in the odds at +800. Having lifted the trophy in 1978, 1986, and most recently in 2022, they also captured the 2024 Copa America title with Lautaro Martínez scoring the extra-time winner against Colombia. Lionel Messi, despite announcing his international retirement in the past, is speculated to return. Even without him, Argentina’s attack remains lethal with Julián Álvarez and Martínez, while their midfield is reinforced by Alexis Mac Allister, Rodrigo De Paul, and Enzo Fernández. They are still very much a force in global football.

Germany: +1100

Germany’s last World Cup triumph came in 2014, adding to their total of four titles. With +1100 odds, the Mannschaft is looking to redeem itself after a quarter-final exit at the hands of Spain at Euro 2024. Their forward depth is questionable with only Niclas Füllkrug and Kai Havertz as reliable options. But the midfield trio of Jamal Musiala, Leon Goretzka, and the ever-consistent Joshua Kimmich brings balance. Defensive stability and tactical adaptability will be Germany’s hope of a resurgence, but their road will be tougher than in past decades.

Portugal: +1200

Portugal enters with +1200 odds and renewed energy following their UEFA Nations League victory against top-seeded Spain. Cristiano Ronaldo’s stunning volley to push the final into extra time reminded the world of his enduring brilliance. But it is the midfield that is Portugal’s biggest asset. UEFA Champions League winner Vitinha, along with Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva, form one of the strongest midfield trios in the world. Despite disappointing quarter-final exits in both Euro 2024 (to France via penalties) and the 2022 World Cup (to Morocco), this squad, now fully matured, has championship pedigree and momentum heading into 2026.

Netherlands: +2000

The Netherlands, at +2000, are always competitive but continue chasing their first World Cup title. They have reached the final three times but never sealed the deal. In the 2022 tournament, they were narrowly edged out by Argentina in a dramatic penalty shootout. The Dutch reached the Euro 2024 semi-finals before falling 2-1 to England. Captain Virgil van Dijk is joined by defenders Stephan De Vrij and Denzel Dumfries, creating a solid wall at the back. Memphis Depay leads the attack, while Cody Gakpo, Wout Weghorst, and Donyell Malen offer diverse options upfront.

Italy: +2500

Italy, four-time World Cup winners, last triumphed in 2006. At +2500, their current trajectory is lacking consistency. They scraped into the Euro 2024 knockout stage but were defeated 2-0 by Switzerland in the Round of 16. Midfielder Lorenzo Pellegrini is a standout, alongside Inter Milan defenders Francesco Acerbi and Matteo Darmian. The competition for roster spots is fierce as Italy’s younger talents strive to replace a golden generation. If they can gel, they may surprise — but the odds reflect the uncertainty around their development curve.

Uruguay: +3000

Uruguay rounds out the top ten with +3000 odds. Their first World Cup win came in 1930 on home soil, with another title following in 1950. Since then, it has been a long wait. Their recent third-place finish in the 2024 Copa America was encouraging. Legends Luis Suárez and Diego Godín have stepped aside, giving way to a new core. Federico Valverde commands the midfield, while Darwin Núñez aims to become Uruguay’s next great forward. Their defensive duo Ronald Araújo and José María Giménez are among the world’s best — a rock-solid foundation for a hopeful campaign.

Portugal’s Rising Chances After UEFA Nations League Victory

Portugal’s win over top-ranked Spain in the UEFA Nations League is more than just another trophy — it is a statement of intent. With a midfield that can dominate possession and a leader like Ronaldo who still delivers on the big stage, they have both the experience and youth to make a real impact. Their recent record — quarter-final losses in the last two major tournaments — reflects past shortcomings. But this time it feels different. The squad has matured, tasted victory against elite opposition, and remains injury-free. As 2026 nears, Portugal stands as one of the most dangerous dark horses on the planet. 

• Geovany Quenda
• 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship
• Portugal U21

Portugal moved to the top of Group C at the 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship after thrashing Poland 5-0 in Trencin.

The opening goal came in the 17th minute when Roger Fernandes raced clear and teed up Geovany Quenda who converted from close range.

The Equipa das Quinas made it 2-0 eight minutes later when Roger found Quenda again, the winger showing neat footwork before firing the ball into the top corner.

Quenda turned provider in the 30th minute when rolled the ball through to Henrique Araújo who made no mistake. The fourth goal came before half-time, Kacper Tobiasz parrying Flávio Nazinho’s cross straight to Paulo Bernardo who sent a pinpoint strike into the net.

Portugal’s fifth goal came in the 63rd minute, Gustavo Sá striding clear on the counter, exchanging passed with Rodrigo Pinheiro before teeing up Rodrigo Gomes who stroked the ball through Tobiasz.

Portugal 5-0 Poland

Poland had the first opportunity of the match in the 7th minute when Filip Szymczak fired across the face of goal. The sizeable Polish support got excited but they were soon given a strong dose of reality.

Portugal’s opening goal came in the 17th minute following a long throw in from Flávio Nazinho. Roger Fernandes raced clear and provided a perfect pass for Geovany Quenda who made no mistake from close range.

The Equipa das Quinas doubled their advantage eight minutes later when Roger’s deep cross found Quenda, the 18-year-old dancing around two Polish defenders before smashing a right footed effort past Kacper Trelowski.

Portugal executed an effective counter attack in the 30th minute to make it 3-0. Roger sent Quenda clear but he chose to wait for Henrique Araújo, threading the ball to the striker who found the bottom corner.

Quenda saw his hat-trick attempt saved before Poland’s best chance of the contest came in the 37th minute, a well worked move down the left wing resulting in Kacper Kozlowski hitting the post.

Portugal made it 4-0 before the break after Nazinho overlapped Roger and sent a dangerous cross into the box. Tobiasz parried the ball straight to Paulo Bernardo who took a touch onto his left and executed a pinpoint strike into the net.

Rui Jorge made a triple substitution at half time with Bernardo, Quenda and Roger making way for Mathias De Amorim, Rodrigo Gomes and João Marques.

Adam Majewski brought on Filip Luberecki and Kajetan Szmyt for Arkadiusz Pyrka and Dominik Marczuk with Michał Gurgul making way for Lukasz Bejger in the 56th minute.

João Muniz booked for a late challenge on Szmyt before Jorge went to his bench again, bringing on Gustavo Sá for Araújo.

Portugal’s fifth goal came in the 63rd minute, another counter attack following a Polish set piece. Sá raced clear and played a 1-2 with Rodrigo Pinheiro, then giving the ball to Gomes who stroked the ball through Tobiasz’s legs.

Wiktor Bogacz forced a save from Soares before Jorge replaced Pedro Santos with Carlos Forbes. Forbs got busy in the closing stages but couldn’t make it count, Portugal cruising to the finish line with plenty left in the tank.

Quenda too good

Portugal produced a fine performance in the first half and ended the contest before the break. They punished Poland's poor defence with a clinical attacking display and proved they have a significant threat on the counter attack.

Geovany Quenda was the youngest player on the pitch but the 18-year-old looked like a man against boys. After representing Portugal at the European U17 Championship in Cyprus last year, his contribution to Sporting Clube de Portugal’s double winning season has given him a huge amount of confidence.

Rui Jorge may not have a squad as complete as in previous years, but in Quenda he has a proven match winner. Roger Fernandes improved on the left wing and combined well with Flávio Nazinho.

It was a significant occasion for Paulo Bernardo and Henrique Araújo, both players scoring in a match where they equaled Manuel Fernandes record of 30 caps for Portugal’s U21 side.

Bernardo's experience and quality is proving to be an important ingredient in midfield, especially against Poland as Mateus Fernandes didn't get off the bench. Tiago Tomás wasn't required and will be well rested after a tireless effort in the 0-0 draw against France.

The victory equaled the biggest Portuguese victory in the final stages of the European Championships, a 5-0 victory against Germany in the Euro 2015 semi-finals. Jorge's side climbed to the summit of Group C, level with France who scored in the 12th minute of added time to secure a 3-2 win against Georgia.

Portugal end the group stage against Georgia with a win or a draw enough to secure a spot in the quarter-finals.

Quotes

Rui Jorge: "It’s a great victory, but the numbers aren’t fair. We played very well in the fast attack, we knew what we had to exploit. But we still need more consistency in our game, we weren’t as superior as the numbers say.

"When the players are intelligent, when they understand the coach's idea, it becomes easier. They showed quality in many actions, we were good defensively, we need to maintain this level to move forward.

“What I want is for them to give their all, whether they are on the pitch for 90, 45 or one minute. The players have been doing that. Their enthusiasm satisfies me as a coach. The players are all available and willing to help the group and not themselves.”

Geovany Quenda: "We needed a win, that was the most important thing. Roger and I had already talked about it, that one of us had to score. He made two assists. The most important thing was the team’s win. Each player has their own characteristics, the team was with us.

"It is always an honor to represent Portugal, wherever it is, under-19, under-20 or under-21. Being here does not mean that things are going badly, quite the opposite. I just have to keep working, that is the most important thing for me.”

Roger Fernandes: "It was a great victory, we worked hard for it. We were hungry, the game was very good, we wanted to respond and we were effective.”

Henrique Araujo: "Excellent game. We started focused. It was very important to win, we were very efficient. We scored with almost every shot in the first half, which gave us a lot of peace of mind. Every goal is important, but we can't let up. We have to correct the details.

“It's always good to break these records. We played a great game, scoring five goals.”

By Matthew Marshall at Stadion Sihot

Line Ups

Portugal (4-3-3): Samuel Soares; Rodrigo Pinheiro, João Muniz, Chico Lamba, Flávio Nazinho; Diogo Nascimento, Paulo Bernardo (Mathias De Amorim 46’), Pedro Santos (Carlos Forbs 69’); Geovany Quenda (Rodrigo Gomes 46’), Henrique Araújo (Gustavo Sá 61’), Roger Fernandes (João Marques 46’)

Coach: Rui Jorge

Unused substitutes: João Carvalho, Diogo Pinto, Christian Marques, Lourenço Figueiredo, Rafael Rodrigues, Mateus Fernandes, Tiago Tomás

Poland (5-4-1): Kacper Tobiasz; Dominik Marczuk (Kajetan Szmyt 46’), Patryk Peda, Ariel Mosór, Michal Gurgul (Lukasz Bejger 56’), Arkadiusz Pyrka (Filip Luberecki 46’); Kacper Kozlowski (Tomasz Pienko 69’), Jakub Kaluzinski (Mateusz Kowalczyk 83’), Mateusz Legowski, Mariusz Fornalczyk; Filip Szymczak

Coach: Adam Majewski

Unused substitutes: Kacper Trelowski, Slawomir Abramowicz, Milosz Matysik, Bartlomiej Smolarczyk, Michal Rakoczy, Antoni Kozubal, Wiktor Bogacz

Goals

Geovany Quenda 16' [1-0]
Geovany Quenda 24' [2-0]
Henrique Araújo 30' [3-0]
Paulo Bernardo 41' [4-0]
Rodrigo Gomes 63' [5-0]

• 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship
• Rui Jorge
• Portugal U21

Portugal began their 2025 UEFA European U21 Championship campaign with a 0-0 draw against France. The Equipa das Quinas were the better side in Trenčín with Paulo Bernardo, Roger Fernandes and Tiago Tomás denied early on.

Rui Jorge’s side conceded a penalty in the 29th minute that was overruled by the VAR. France turned the tide in the second half but were unable to seriously test Samuel Soares.

The game opened up in the closing stages but the deadlock wouldn’t be broken, both teams ultimately content with a point before taking on Poland and Georgia in Group C.

Portugal 0-0 France

Portugal had a great chance in the 14th minute when Geovany Quenda got the ball to Paulo Bernardo who saw his shot blocked by Chrislain Matsima. Bernardo did well to steer the rebound to Roger Fernandes who was denied by a goal line clearance from Castello Lukeba.

Tiago Tomás then outmuscled Matsima, getting past the defender with Guillaume Restes coming off his line to make an important save. Quenda headed Roger’s cross over the bar as the chances kept coming.

A loose pass from Quentin Merlin presented Portugal with their next opportunity that fell to Roger, his shot blocked by Ismaël Doukouré.

Rui Jorge’s side dodged a bullet in the 29th minute when referee Manfredas Lukjančukas awarded France a penalty. Matthis Abline had got past Rafael Rodrigues who brought the forward down near the byline, VAR ruling that the challenge occurred inches outside the box.

Rui Jorge made a substitution at half-time, bringing on Flávio Nazinho for Rafael Rodrigues.

France began the second half strong and continually applied pressure to Portugal’s defence without testing Samuel Soares.

Jorge made two more changes in the 60th minute, overhauling his wide men with Quenda and Roger replaced by Rodrigo Gomes and Carlos Forbs. Gérald Baticle went to his bench for the first time two minutes later when Abline made way for Thierno Barry.

The contest began to open up at both ends, Gomes firing a difficult chance over the bar and Mathys Tel shooting straight at Soares before being replaced by Loum Tchaouna.

Portugal were making plenty of inroads down the left wing, Nazinho creating a chance for Bernardo and Forbs unable to pick out an unmarked Gomes. Tomás was exhausted and replaced in the 80th minute when Gustavo Sá entered the fray.

The final two chances fell for France, Nazinho denying Odobert and Johann Lepenant’s shot saved by Soares.

Promising performance

France had the superior side on paper, particularly in defence with centre-backs Castello Lukeba and Chrislain Matsima frequently joined by Ismaël Doukouré. All three players made key interventions to prevent Portugal taking an early lead.

Portugal held their own in midfield, particularly thanks to Mateus Fernandes and Paulo Bernardo who have gained plenty of top flight experience playing in the United Kingdom. Geovany Quenda was key to creating chances, the winger picking up a couple of knocks and replaced by Rodrigo Gomes on the hour mark.

Tiago Tomás worked tirelessly up front in an impressive performance,the striker completely gassed by the time he made way for Gustavo Sá. Rui Jorge explained his decision to leave Henrique Araújo on the bench but there is no doubt that Fábio Silva’s late withdrawal from the squad limits his options up front.

I think Jorge will ultimately be satisfied with the point considering France’s class and experience advantage. The VAR is very rarely used in youth tournaments and it came to Portugal’s rescue to overturn a penalty that was awarded in the 29th minute.

Expect to see Jorge make some changes when Portugal face Poland on Saturday. Regardless of who starts, expect to see excitement out wide during the final 30 minutes, Jorge blessed with an abundance of fast, direct and dangerous wingers.

Quotes

Rui Jorge: "It could have been better. We created enough chances to get the win. We played a good game, with an excellent team attitude. We managed to create some dangerous situations, but we didn’t convert them. It’s strange when a game like this ends 0-0.

"My players showed quality, passion for the game and a great spirit of sacrifice. That’s the image we always want to convey, so I’m pleased about that too. There were some nerves, as well as situations where we could have finished better. I’m happy with the game, although not entirely satisfied with the result. If we play like this more often, we’ll win more often.

"We created good finishing opportunities that could have resulted in a goal. Of course we had a few own goals, but it was a good spectacle for those who watched. I would hardly say that a game between these two teams would end 0-0, but it happened."

"We are looking for these performances. We always talk a lot about the objective, which becomes much closer when we demonstrate this level of performance. Of course we were not perfect and we are far from it, but it was a good performance against an excellent team.

"I was very pleased with the performance of the defensive quartet. Now, they don’t defend alone and we had three midfielders who gave a great help, as well as the wingers and Tiago Tomás, who did an extraordinary job. The defense was very good and faced great players, but the whole team helped in the defensive process.

"It was an extremely tiring game for the wingers and I’m interested in them being able to give their best when they’re on the pitch. Roger Fernandes and Geovany Quenda made a tremendous effort, but we have a very homogeneous group, with very similar quality and level. Rodrigo Gomes and Carlos Forbs came in and had the same role of looking for depth and I think we managed to do that.

"I asked Gustavo Sá to move a little bit out of the striker’s area and play a little bit lower, in order to try to get the French central defenders out of their position, because Carlos Forbs and Rodrigo Gomes are extremely fast and we could take advantage of that space. In addition, Gustavo Sá provided some quality in a lower area and numerical superiority as well. Obviously, if it was just a swap for the sake of it, the solution would be Henrique Araújo."

Tiago Tomás: "I think it was a very even game. There were parts of the game where they managed to intimidate us too, but we had six or seven chances to score. If there was going to be a winner, it would have to be us. I’m proud of the performance but, in a short competition, the important thing is the points.

"It’s worth highlighting the performance we put in against one of the best teams. It’s a good motivation. We’ll have different opponents, we’ll change our approach, but we’ll play to win and to get through the group stage."

Chico Lamba: "We knew it was going to be a very difficult game, against a very strong opponent who are favourites to win this tournament. We didn’t hide, we played very well and it was a shame we didn’t manage to score any goals. We gave everything out there, they are excellent players, they all play in the top five leagues in the world. We will never hide. We are here to do our best and win games."

By Matthew Marshall at Stadion Sihot

Line Ups

Portugal (4-3-3): Samuel Soares; Rodrigo Pinheiro, João Muniz, Chico Lamba, Rafael Rodrigues (Flávio Nazinho 46’); Mateus Fernandes, Diogo Nascimento, Paulo Bernardo; Geovany Quenda (Rodrigo Gomes 60’), Tiago Tomás (Gustavo Sá 80’), Roger Fernandes (Carlos Forbs 60’)

Coach: Rui Jorge

Unused substitutes: João Carvalho, Diogo Pinto, Christian Marques, Lourenço Figueiredo, Mathias De Amorim, João Marques, Pedro Santos, Henrique Araújo

France (4-3-3): Guillaume Restes; Kiliann Sildillia, Chrislain Matsima, Castello Lukeba, Quentin Merlin; Andy Diouf, Johann Lepenant, Ismaël Doukouré (Soungoutou Magassa 88’); Mathys Tel (Loum Tchaouna 77’), Matthis Abline, (Thierno Barry 62’) Wilson Odobert

Coach: Gérald Baticle

Unused substitutes: Obed Nkambadio, Robin Risser, Christian Mawissa, Nathan Zézé, Lucien Agoumé, Djaoui Cissé, Félix Lemaréchal, Jean-Mattéo Bahoya, Noah Edjouma

• Cristiano Ronaldo
• 2025 Nations League

Cristiano Ronaldo has never been one to hide his emotions. From the tears of despair at Euro 2004, to the tears of joy at Euro 2016, and plenty in between and afterwards, the Portugal captain has always worn his heart on his sleeve.

There were more tears – the happy kind – in Munich on Sunday evening as Ronaldo was once again overcome with emotion after Portugal’s victory over Spain in the Nations League final.

He had talked pre-match about how he missed the feeling of lifting a trophy and talking to reporters at the Allianz Arena he let it be known that winning for his country is extra special.

“So much joy! Winning for Portugal is very special. I’ve won lots of silverware, but nothing beats winning for Portugal. We’re a small country, but a country with huge ambition.

“I’ve lived in lots of countries, I’ve played for many clubs, but when it’s Portugal it’s a special feeling.

“Being the captain of this generation makes me proud. This generation deserved this trophy.”

Ronaldo also had words of praise for coach Roberto Martínez and hit out at the many critics who had been suggesting the manager’s position was at risk.

“I’m very proud of our coach too. The way he’s been treated is unfair. They kept laying into him. He puts so much passion into the training sessions and the games, and the rest of the coaching staff too. He deserves this. You should respect him more.

“After winning a competition like this, we have to be given our dues, both us the players and the coaching team.”

Related: Portugal UEFA Nations League champions after beating Spain on penalties

Related: Spain players: “Portugal the best team we have faced”