Euro 2020 finished this summer, and what a competition it was. Okay, Portugal did not go as far as they would have liked, but they had the hardest group with Hungary, Germany, and France and then they had to play Belgium in the Round of 16.

Usually, we would have to wait two whole years for the next major international tournament, but as Euro 2020 was delayed a year due to the pandemic, we just have a little over a year to wait for the FIFA 2022 World Cup. The prize every international team wants to win. In this article, we are going to take a look at Portugal’s odds to win the most prestigious competition in football. 

European World Cup Qualifiers

Teams obviously have to earn the right to compete at the World Cup, and come the middle of November, we will know most of the European teams that have qualified for the competition. The team that finishes first in their group gets automatic qualification for the World Cup, while those teams that are runners-up have to compete in playoffs for the right to play at the biggest international football tournament in the world.

Portugal were drawn in Group A with Azerbaijan, Luxembourg, Republic of Ireland, and Serbia. At the time of writing, the Seleção sit second in the table with 16 points thanks to five wins and a draw, but just one point behind leaders Serbia with a game in hand. They play their final qualification matches later this week against Ireland and Serbia, that last group game likely to be winner takes all at the Estádio da Luz, in Lisbon.

Portugal has their talismanic Cristiano Ronaldo to thank for the fact they still have their fate in their own hands. In the game against Ireland, Portugal were losing 1-0 with 89 minutes on the clock, and he popped up with an equalizing goal in the 90th minute and the winner in the 96th minute. This would have been a bittersweet pill for the Irish fans to swallow, as many of them, given the form their team is in, would have used the best betting sites that can be found at betinireland.ie to bet on Portugal to win. If they did so with just ten minutes or so left of normal time, they would at least have been able to get a fair number of pints after the match.  Obviously, they would have preferred that their team caused a big upset, but it just was not to be.

Speaking about bookmakers, the majority of them have Portugal as clear favourites to top their group and make it through to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar as automatic qualifiers. For example, at Bet365, if you were to place €100 on Portugal to win the group, you would only make a €10 profit since they have odds of just 1.10 to finish first.

Portugal's Chances at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar

So, let us say that the bookmakers are 100% correct and Portugal do enough to top their group and qualify automatically for the World Cup next year. What are their odds of going on to lift the trophy? Well, in the table below, you can see what odds some of the best bookmakers in the world are giving for Portugal to be champions next year.

 

Bet365

William Hill

888sport

Unibet

Betway

Portugal

15/1

15/1

15/1

13/1

15/1

 

If you go on an oddschecker website, you will see that the majority of all the most popular bookies have eight teams that they believe have a better chance of lifting the trophy than Portugal. Below are the odds that Bet365 are giving for these eight teams to win the tournament:

Brazil – 5/1

France – 5/1

England – 6/1

Spain – 8/1

Italy – 9/1

Argentina – 11/1

Germany – 11/1

Belgium – 11/1

So, after Belgium there is a big increase in odds to 15/1, which means that bookmakers and punters feel that there is a big gap between these eight and the rest of the pack. We believe that this is a pretty fair assessment, although with the way that Germany have been playing lately, we probably would not have them at odds of 11/1 to win. Although, they usually play well at big tournaments, especially the World Cup, so this probably has something to do with those odds.

Would we put our own money on Portugal to win the World Cup? Well, while we would absolutely love to see one of the best players the game has ever seen lift the World Cup trophy, it is something that we just do not see happening. Depending on the group that Portugal gets drawn into (let us hope that it is not another Group of Death), we feel that the semi-final stage is probably the best that they can hope for.

This is just our opinion though, and we have no doubt that there will be plenty of Portugal fans who will disagree with us and are confident about their side’s chances of winning their first World Cup and will be putting money on them to do just that. Their coach, Fernando Santos, does have some serious young talent at his disposal, that is for sure. For example, there is the likes of João Félix, Rúben Dias, João Cancelo, Rúben Neves, Diogo Jota, Renato Sanches, Rafael Leão and Francisco Trincão. Not only do these players have the zest of youth behind them, but they all regularly play for some of the best teams in Europe such as Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, and AC Milan.

Then, they have the likes of Bruno Fernandes, Bernado Silva, Ronaldo, Pepe, Moutinho, and Rui Patrício to give them the international experience that they will need to do well on the big stage. If they all play to their potential, then they could shock the world and lift the World Cup next winter.

 

Comments (17)

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the funny thing about the group of death is that not one team that made it out went past the round of 16 so were they deadly?

I will comment on Portugals chances based on how they play during Serbia. A clutch game for both teams.

We know the...

the funny thing about the group of death is that not one team that made it out went past the round of 16 so were they deadly?

I will comment on Portugals chances based on how they play during Serbia. A clutch game for both teams.

We know the talent, if they actually click, they could be unstoppable.

CLICK DAMN IT... CLICK!!!!!

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The only way I can see Portugal winning this World Cup is if 3-4 guys step up and score goals not named Ronaldo. Let’s just say that in a typical tournament if we play until the final, you can assume Ronaldo scores 4-5 goals. In order to get to a...

The only way I can see Portugal winning this World Cup is if 3-4 guys step up and score goals not named Ronaldo. Let’s just say that in a typical tournament if we play until the final, you can assume Ronaldo scores 4-5 goals. In order to get to a final, we’re going to need another 2-3 players to contribute 2+ goals…Leao, Jota, Bruno, Bernardo, Joao Felix…one of these guys are going to have to take it upon themselves and contribute. We’re 100% not going to keep clean sheets and draw our way anywhere in this tournament. There’s way to many high powered scoring teams and we’re not going to EVER DO WHAT WE DID AGAIN IN EURO 2016.

With that being said, do I think we’re going to do what I said above, the answer is a definite no. Under Santos we’ll be fighting for our lives against good teams and we won’t have enough of the ball for the guys I mentioned above to get on the score sheet every game. I can’t possibly expect us to play any different than we did in the euros, the only guys were adding that really have the possibility to contribute to the outcome of games is Leao and with the style that we play with under Santos, I can’t see how that exploits the offensive fire power we have.

In another universe where Jurgen Klopp or Pep Guardiola is managing our team then I would confidently say that yes absolutely no doubt Portugal can win the World Cup. As it stands today and recent history(last 4+ years) I can’t possibly see how we generate enough goals out of our offensive players not named Ronaldo. Sure we can hammer Macedonia or Australia in the World Cup but who’s going to score for us against Brazil, France, Argentina, Germany, England, Italy, Spain etc? I can name 3-4 guys on the teams above that are definitely capable of scoring against Portugal. Again this isn’t a shot at our players abilities, it’s a shot at Santos and his lack of ideas going forward that nullifies our talent to put the ball in the back of the net.

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Bookmakers are hilarious and bank on dumb people betting with their hearts over their heads. Brazil? England? Argentina? Belgium?

If these teams have a chance of winning the World Cup, then I have a chance of being richer than Jeff Bezos.

Book...

Bookmakers are hilarious and bank on dumb people betting with their hearts over their heads. Brazil? England? Argentina? Belgium?

If these teams have a chance of winning the World Cup, then I have a chance of being richer than Jeff Bezos.

Bookmakers know which country bets the most (England), and which countries most people will get on even without knowing anything about football.

As for Portugal's chances of winning, with Fernando Santos in charge, chances are -25% that we won anything.

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Portugal have more than enough talent to win it but I doubt they will with Santos at the helm. We play better as a unit without Ronaldo but we don't have anyone other Ronaldo who can be relied upon to put the ball in the back of the net...

Portugal have more than enough talent to win it but I doubt they will with Santos at the helm. We play better as a unit without Ronaldo but we don't have anyone other Ronaldo who can be relied upon to put the ball in the back of the net consistently.

We defend and press better as a unit without Ronaldo since the old man doesn't offer much when we don't have the ball. Therefore I can understand Santos' unwillingness to press high against quality sides. When we do try to press with Ronaldo on the field, it is oftentimes disorganized and half hearted, making it easier to pass through us.

The problem is that when we do defend deep, we struggle to get anything going on the counter.

And when we do have possession against a side that is sitting back, we struggle to create anything from open play because there seems to be very little chemistry between the players on the pitch. There's little movement off the ball, the passing is slow and predictable, and we oftentimes resort to João Cancelo to create something out of nothing on the wing much like we did when Quaresma was that x factor in the early Santos days.

We can't just not call up Ronaldo. He's one of the greatest players in history and is still an elite goal scorer. No one else on the squad even comes close to him in both goal scoring prowess and the ability to deliver in the clutch.

It'll be interesting to see how Santos approaches the nations league games next summer, especially if Ronaldo opts to sit them out again.

I know it sounds insane, but part of me thinks Ronaldo should only be used as a starter against teams that sit back. When playing against the big boys, we need a guy who can press and defend. Otherwise we are essentially playing a man down without the ball. It is extremely difficult to press effectively and take the game to the opposition when the guy leading the line isn't capable of putting in the effort for 90 minutes.

That being said, we all know that this will never happen. No coach of the Portuguese national team will ever have the cojones to bench Ronaldo. Never. The guy pretty much calls the shots at the end of the day, so you really don't have any choice but to devise a scheme that accommodates Ronaldo without sacrificing defensive solidity.

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As soon as Pedro neto is back in form we need to start deploying him as a right winger. Rafael leao should be an automatic starter over jota on the left, he offers the same capabilities as jota in terms of scoring while also having the plus side...

As soon as Pedro neto is back in form we need to start deploying him as a right winger. Rafael leao should be an automatic starter over jota on the left, he offers the same capabilities as jota in terms of scoring while also having the plus side of being a menace with his speed, dribbling and passing. He adds far more to the game than any of our other attackers barring Ronaldo, Fernandes and Bernardo. Many may not agree but i feel the lineup i will list is one with the best chances of winning a world cup.

Patricio

Cancelo - Pepe - Dias - Mendes

Sanches/ Palinha

Bernardo - Fernandes

Neto - Ronaldo - Leao

Its about time we start using more traditional speedy wingers. Mendes and Cancelo can at times be liabilities defensively but they offer world class offence in a way that none of our other Fullbacks can. Sanches would be my automatic starter because of his workhorse like game and the link up play he can have carrying the ball from our defence-man to our attackers, hes also better than any of our other options at chipping in offensively. Bernardo needs to be played in the middle of the park as shown this season with Man City and previously with Monaco that is his best position and an area where he can cause damage to opposition. Fernandes should continue to start in the middle as his passing game and eye for goal is the best among our midfielders. I would however refrain from him playing as Cam as we can see while he is at Man United it can leave him isolated from the rest of the players if we’re re playing top opponents. Leao and Neto can provide the type of support that Ronaldo has been sorely missing. Their speed, dribbling and directness, as well as their eye for goal and better than average passing game will add a dynamic that the National team has been missing for awhile now. Ronaldo is self explanatory, although people complain about his pressing its never been a part of his game, such are excuses for the poor management conducted by Ole and Santos. Our favoured Substitutes for this lineup should be Matheus, Palinha, Jota, A.Silva, Pote, and Guerreiro. Id also like Inacio to start getting more opportunities he looks like our best Cb prospect, pepe isnt getting any younger and the sooner Dias has a partner the sooner we can mold that partnership in a strong wall in the back for years to come.

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Let's just focus on winning our next two games and qualifying first. Because if we don't, and we drop down into the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even qualify. These next two matches are crucial not just for qualification but for...

Let's just focus on winning our next two games and qualifying first. Because if we don't, and we drop down into the playoffs, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't even qualify. These next two matches are crucial not just for qualification but for how much time we'll have to experiment as well. There's a big difference between a World Cup 6 months after qualification and 1 year after qualification...

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To add to what I said earlier, I looked at the euro stats from 2020.

Portugal scored 7 goals in 4 games, Ronaldo scored 5 of them and assisted another goal, also 3 of his goals were from Penalty kicks. So Ronaldo contributed to 6 out of 7 of...

To add to what I said earlier, I looked at the euro stats from 2020.

Portugal scored 7 goals in 4 games, Ronaldo scored 5 of them and assisted another goal, also 3 of his goals were from Penalty kicks. So Ronaldo contributed to 6 out of 7 of Portugals goals.

Italy scored 14 goals in 7 games with 0 goals coming from the penalty spot.

Spain scored 14 goals in 6 games with 0 goals coming from the penalty spot

England scored 11 goals in 7 games with 0 goals coming from the penalty spot

Obviously we all know that this reliance on Ronaldo at 37 years old can't work in a world cup. When you add in the likes of a Brazil, Argentina, the outliers like Mexico or an African team with explosive players on all over the field...Portugal can't win this world cup. Nothing is going to change under Santos, the only improvement we can hope to see is going to come from the players individually to deliver something out of no where. It is not going to come from Santos system.

The only way we win a world cup is if 2-3 players contribute and score goals along with Ronaldo getting 4-5 goals. Something like 2 goals from Leao, 2 goals from Jota, 1 or 2 from Bruno and 1 from Ruben Dias on a set piece...something like that will get us to a final. Historically our dependence on Ronaldo to score goals coupled with Santos pragmatic defensive minded coaching won't get it done.

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CR7 has done so much for club and country and I will be eternally grateful, but the time has come for him to approach Santos and agree to take a back seat. CR7 as a super sub is THE answer. Whether we like it or not, it is clear that players who...

CR7 has done so much for club and country and I will be eternally grateful, but the time has come for him to approach Santos and agree to take a back seat. CR7 as a super sub is THE answer. Whether we like it or not, it is clear that players who are leaders at their respective club teams are just not the same when they share the pitch with Ronaldo. It is NOT Ronaldo's fault but it is the reality. The most obvious example to me was when Bruno missed his first penalty with Ronaldo in the Man U line-up.

As for Santos, we might as well pound sand because nothing will happen until after 2022. To be honest though, I don't mind the pragmatic style and I do appreciate that he mixes things up with his selections (remember Bento!?!?!?!). My only real gripe with Santos is that he appears to be too emotional on the touchline when he really should be a calming presence.

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Unfortunately the chances are 0%.
We will scrape through the group stage with one win against the weakest team.

We will then lose to In the round of 16 as usual.
Ronaldo will throw his armband on the ground in rage.

Mark my words, this World...

Unfortunately the chances are 0%.
We will scrape through the group stage with one win against the weakest team.

We will then lose to In the round of 16 as usual.
Ronaldo will throw his armband on the ground in rage.

Mark my words, this World Cup will be won by Argentina.

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Belgium ahead of Portugal is just straight hilarious. Sure we lost the to them in the round of 16, but even a Portugal stuck in 2nd gear looked a better team. However, odds are manipulated by bets, but it's still comical. England winning a WC is...

Belgium ahead of Portugal is just straight hilarious. Sure we lost the to them in the round of 16, but even a Portugal stuck in 2nd gear looked a better team. However, odds are manipulated by bets, but it's still comical. England winning a WC is about as likely as meeting a intellectual at a Trump rally.

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“These players continue to surprise me every day.”

Rúben Amorim
(Sporting coach after 3-1 Lisbon derby victory against Benfica at the Estádio da Luz) 

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