Are Portugal too good to miss out on the 2022 World Cup?

With two fixtures left in Portugal’s World Cup 2022 qualifying schedule, nobody expected the Cristiano Ronaldo show to miss the station. Yet, unfortunately for the seasoned striker, that's exactly what went down. After poor results against the Republic and Ireland and Serbia, where the team only picked up a single point, the Seleção dropped to second in Group A. 

Portugal must now go through an excruciating playoff campaign that is certain to test the resolve of fans, but with Portuguese players continuing to thrive around Europe’s biggest clubs the question is: are Fernando Santos’ men really too good to fail? 

The cream rises to the top 

There’s no doubt that the Portuguese are experiencing a run of poor form. Normally, two games against opposition ranked far below them would be enough for them to secure the points they need to top the group, especially as the decisive game against Serbia was in front of home fans. However it didn’t happen and now a squad many claim is the strongest ever in Portugal’s history is paying the price. The Seleção and Ronaldo face the very real prospect of missing the World Cup, needing to get past Turkey and in all likelihood Italy to book their berth in Qatar.

It beggars belief when you consider the talent that makes up the squad is almost certainly greater than it has been in the past decade, maybe even in the last couple of decades. Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, Diogo Jota, Bruno Fernandes, Ruben Dias and João Cancelo are pulling up trees and earning rave reviews in the world’s most high-profile championship, the English Premier League. And Portugal coach Fernando Santos can further bolster his team with extravagantly talented footballers plying their trade all around Europe such as João Félix (Spain), Renato Sanches (France) and Rafael Leão (Italy), not to mention home-based players like João Palhinha, Rafa Silva and Pedro Gonçalves.

Coach Fernando Santos has come under fierce criticism, but the Portuguese Football Federation (FPF) have decided to stick with the man who guided Portugal to Euro 2016 glory. Santos himself remains upbeat about his team getting to the World Cup, although he admitted that should they fail he will step down.

Portugal’s first obstacle will be Turkey, and if the bookmakers are to be believed, at least, Portugal seem well placed to win. This is reflected in the betting as Portugal are the clear 4/13 favourites for the contest in March 2022. Indeed, the bookies are so confident Santos’ players will come through unscathed that they are the tenth favourites to win the 2022 World Cup outright at odds of 25/1. Turkey’s odds, meanwhile, are 150/1, which tells you everything you need to know. The fact that Portugal’s head-to-head record against Turkey is six victories and two losses in eight matches cements the bookies’ odds, as do 11 straight successful qualification campaigns for Portugal since 2000, including qualifying through the playoffs three times.

Trouble in the camp  

Despite this air of confidence, however, there are worrying signs the Portuguese aren’t completely comfortable in their own skins. Speculation was rife that Ronaldo and Santos traded words after the Serbia defeat, and although the veteran coach quickly shot down any notion of a rift, it isn’t coincidental that a lot of problems, big and small, have plagued the Seleção for several months. While the FPF are firmly behind their man, several of the gossip columns suggest he has lost the dressing room.  

Santos himself steadfastly insists Portugal will be at the finals. Whether that’s a sign of his confidence or delusion, yet to be backed by worthy performances, remains to be seen. Still, although the football world expects and wants to see the likes of Ronaldo and Bernardo in the Middle East next year, the uncertain mood of the camp could be a significant factor if and when the expected showdown against Italy transpires on 29 March 2022.

Italy lie in wait

The reigning European champions, Italy, finished behind Switzerland in Group C, meaning they also must qualify for Qatar via the playoffs. The Azzurri didn’t qualify for the 2018 World Cup, yet that was the first time they had failed to do so since 1958. And they bounced back in style, playing proactive football on their way to winning Euro 2020, beating hosts England in the final.

If it is a Portugal versus Italy final – Italy are quoted as huge 2/9 favourites to overcome North Macedonia – it will be a match between the last two European champions, which is a contest worthy of a World Cup Final itself. Aside from a squad packed with quality, Santos will look to home advantage to give his boys the edge. Not only will they play at home against Turkey, but they’ll be on home turf for the final, too, should they get there.

A caveat to this is that the Portuguese played at home against Serbia when they lost 2-1 on Matchday 10. And everyone is aware Italy has a glorious football history; they are a side that can play high-octane exhilarating football, but who are also willing to scrap and fight for victory when need be.

On paper, the Portuguese side is too good to miss out on qualifying. But football is a funny game, and as Portugal have proven recently, having a dazzling array of stars is of no use if the team as a whole is misfiring on all cylinders. The world will be watching come March.