Last week, PortuGOAL.net brought you part one of an in-depth review of Portugal’s most likely candidates for next summer’s European Championship, beginning with goalkeepers and defenders.
Now Seleção correspondent Nathan Motz is back with part two in the series, an evaluation of Portugal’s growing crop of midfield playmakers. Follow along as Nathan inspects Portugal’s best options, and how they ultimately might fit into Fernando Santos’ tactical design for Euro 2016 in France.
Guidelines
Whenever I discuss potential selections for the national team, I find it crucial to establish guidelines so as to not allow my assessment to become too far-fetched. This is particularly true when evaluating midfielders because of the distinct bias against defensive-minded players. Most well-read football fans will immediately understand what I am talking about. But in case you may not, ask yourself which footballers you rate as “world-class” and immediately try to decipher how many of these are either strikers, or at least attack-minded, “flair” players. You will likely find that almost all of the players that are most famous or you know the most about are specialists in attacking football, and may or may not have any role at all in the defensive side of the game. Indeed, strikers readily win individual awards, defenders do not, but where exactly does that leave midfielders?
The truth is that the multi-faceted role of the modern midfielder is poorly understood. Of the final 23 players chosen for Euro 2016, only 6 or 7 will be central midfielders occupying the three innermost positions in Portugal’s 4-3-3 formation. And unlike some other areas of the pitch, Portugal is loaded with young talent in central midfield. So how should we most accurately determine which players are right for the Seleção and which should be left out despite their obvious talent?
My case is that rating footballers only with respect to their ability to score or create scoring chances is a fallacy, and does not provide an adequate model for determining which individual players are best suited to work together as a team. I have often found this particular misinterpretation of individual ability to be most egregious when evaluating midfielders. A prodigious #10 will almost always receive more adulation than a holding midfielder that breaks up attacks before they ever reach the back-four. Only a select few defensive midfielders are ever truly appreciated for their role, for example Italy’s Andrea Pirlo (and you might argue that this is more for his vision and range of passing), and Chile’s Arturo Vidal. This bias is even more puzzling when you consider that statistics over the last decade reveal that goals prevented (defence) are of greater value in determining a game’s final outcome than goals scored (offence). In other words, the teams that do the best job at keeping the ball out of the net have the best odds (statistically) of winning a given match (source: Anderson, The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Soccer Is Wrong)
Since Deco retired from international football, Portugal have been without a true #10 and have made do by employing versatile, dynamic utility players that take turns supporting the attack and defending as play evolves up and down the pitch. At Euro 2012, Raul Meireles, Miguel Veloso, and João Moutinho brilliantly executed this scheme because they possessed the right blend of individual qualities to balance out each other’s strengths and weaknesses. Rather than simply field Portugal’s three best attacking midfield options, Paulo Bento accurately determined that this balanced approach would give Portugal the most leverage on its opponents, both in disrupting their offence and in generating counter-attacks.
This meant, for example, that players like Manuel Fernandes, who were highly rated by many at the time, could not fit into the squad because of their defensive liabilities. In the case of Fernandes, this liability was clearly demonstrated in the unnerving 4-4 draw with Cyprus during Euro 2012 qualification. This was the game in which the Besiktas midfielder scored a thunderbolt from 30 yards, but was frequently out of position, allowing Cyprus to freely counterattack. To some extent you might even say this is why Danny is constantly employed on the wing instead of in the hole behind the striker (for fear that he will be caught out of position too frequently).
Player Evaluations
So now we have come to the task at hand, which is daunting to say the least. At present, Portugal has a veritable stockpile of midfield weaponry at its disposal. We will begin by assessing one of Portugal’s best, João Moutinho. Statistically, the diminutive playmaker has fallen slightly behind relative to his performances during the 2014/15 season, but still remains a first choice selection for Leonardo Jardim’s Monaco. But it is the form of his club as a whole that concerns me the most. Monaco failed to secure Champions League qualification in August 2015 and was denied progression from its UEL group on the last matchday by Tottenham Hotspur. This restricts Moutinho to only Ligue 1 competition through the end of the season, which realistically affords him only a few opportunities (e.g. PSG, Lyon, Marseille) to play against the kind of opposition that he will face at Euro 2016. The effect this will have on his tournament form is difficult to say at this point, but it is unfortunate nonetheless. On the bright side, Moutinho did score in both of Portugal’s last qualifiers in October, revealing an important component of his game that may be crucial to the Seleção’s odds of victory in France. Whether he scores goals or not, however, Moutinho’s form has often been the difference between lackluster underachievement and convincing victory for Portugal. His adaptability and work ethic alone are enough to overcome any statistical deficiency in terms of goals and assists. I would go so far as to say that the quality of form he develops through the end of this season may ultimately determine the longevity of Portugal’s tournament aspirations.
Next, we travel to Spain to evaluate a new hope plying his trade at the Estadio Mestalla. Valencia’s André Gomes is in electric form for Los Che and, at the age of 22, still has lots of time left to evolve into a very special player indeed. You have no doubt heard the buzz generated by his performance against Real Madrid, but having watched him play numerous times this season I can tell you that this was by no means a deviation from the norm. For example, against Villareal in December, Gomes demonstrated his full suite of technical ability including an outrageous Ronaldo-esque back-heel flick, and brilliant footwork for a player so tall. In fact, relative to his other qualities (and there are many), his ability to leverage his physical frame might be of greatest value to the Seleção, especially when you consider the modest stature of our other midfield options. Gomes is tactically disciplined, but will not hesitate to find threatening positions in and around the penalty area. Additionally, his ability to run at pace at defenders is a rare skill that may only be matched by Porto’s Danilo Pereira. With two goals and three assists, Gomes lacks the flashy end product that some might use to highlight his need for improvement. But make no mistake; André Gomes is a multi-talented forward thinking midfielder that would greatly augment Portugal’s attacking threat through the centre of the pitch. The one caveat I will add is that his inclusion in the Seleção increases the need for a disciplined holding midfielder to sit just ahead of the back-four.
Andre Gomes will participate in Europa League competition as well as the Copa del Rey and La Liga, affording him multiple opportunities to test his skill against premier opposition. I will summarize my overall assessment of his form this season by saying that if I were manager of the Seleção, Gomes would absolutely be in my starting lineup if he maintained his current form.
Porto
With Tiago injured and unlikely to be tournament fit by June, Fernando Santos must look elsewhere to find a player that can act as a traditional “deep-lying” playmaker. FC Porto has two such players in Danilo Pereira and Ruben Neves. Danilo has surged into form since earning his first cap in March 2015. A regular for Porto, Danilo exerts a strong physical influence on the pitch, but also has the ability to embark upon Yaya Toure-style runs through midfield. This skill alone sets him apart from Sporting’s William Carvalho in my opinion. It can also lead him to get caught out of position at times, and in the end his marauding prowess may work against his odds of selection if Santos wants a stay-at-home type midfielder. He will play Europa League football with Porto and also has the advantage of playing on the same pitch as several other midfield options for Portugal. One of these, André André, is a more attack-minded player that has blossomed into form over the last year. He already has four goals and three assists for FC Porto, and scored his first international goal for Portugal in the November friendly against Luxembourg. If he maintains this form, it is certainly difficult to envision him not having some role to play in France. Still, a midfield three of Gomes-Moutinho-Andre Andre, for example, while offensively intimidating, would certainly leave our defence exposed. Tactically, his inclusion depends at least to some degree on how well our other midfielders can assist the defence.
Finally, Ruben Neves is the youngest and perhaps, most intriguing midfield option coming out of Porto. Though he has broken several records due to the playing experience he has already accumulated at the tender age of 18, it remains to be seen just how seriously Fernando Santos will consider the youngster for selection. In a recent interview, Neves declared his contentment with the holding midfield role assigned to him, which may make him a more attractive option for Santos given that the manager seems more interested in building a formidable defence than a flashy, awe-inspiring offence. Neves does have two caps under his belt already, but I cannot shake the feeling that he is just too young to play a major role in France in spite of his burgeoning talent. If that turns out to be true, he will almost certainly have another opportunity this year at the Olympics in Brazil, and not since Cristiano Ronaldo has a Portuguese player so young had such an opportunity to shine at senior level.
Sporting
Heading south from Porto we visit the talent mill that is Sporting Club de Portugal. Like Porto, Sporting has several midfielders that will have at least a chance to feature at Euro 2016. William Carvalho is perhaps the one with the most to prove. Since breaking out in 2013/14, injuries and a loss of form have damaged William’s odds of making a berth in the starting XI his own in France. Though physically imposing and with raw talent at his disposal, William seems to lack the energy of some of Portugal’s other midfield options and does not distribute the ball as well either. Combine that with distractions generated by the transfer rumor mill, and William is a player that needs to improve in the second half of the season if he wants to make the team.
Juxtapose that with Adrien Silva’s mid-season review. At 26 years old, Adrien is in the form of his life with five goals and four assists for the best team in Portugal (at present). If I am honest, the attacking threat (especially in terms of end product) he offers is beyond that of André André, and maybe even André Gomes. Whenever I watch him play, I am particularly drawn to his ability to find space to unleash shots that often force the keeper to make a save even if they do not find the back of the net. He has the stamina, pace, desire, and talent to make him a competitive option for Santos, but I wonder just how badly his lack of experience with Portugal will hurt him? With only 5 caps, it is a distinct possibility that he misses the plane to France. That might seem harsh, but I base that opinion on several years of analyzing how managers select their squads. Caps matter, and Adrien is lacking in that department, but then again so are many other Portuguese midfielders. Similar to André André and our other attack-minded central midfielders, the inclusion of Adrien Silva would definitely increase the need for a strong holding midfielder to play alongside him.
João Mário is another enigma to consider. Young and clearly very talented, Mário has not demonstrated enough consistency for me to rate him as highly as the aforementioned midfielders in this article, but he has been readily employed by Santos and does seem to be improving with time. Tactically, I do not think he offers the attacking threat of Adrien Silva or André Gomes, and defensively I would not rate him as highly as Danilo. Hence, a substitute’s role beckons unless he continues to improve through the end of this season. In particular, if he were to demonstrate a greater goal-scoring threat, his chances of selection would greatly improve. Even Cristiano Ronaldo once struggled to round out his brilliant overall play with the right end products (goals/assists).
In the interest of conserving space, I chose to leave out an assessment of Miguel Veloso even though his performances for Dynamo Kyiv and experience with the national team will likely give him at least a chance at making the final cut, much to the chagrin of many Portugal fans. Additionally, for those wondering about other options such as Bruno Fernandes and Renato Sanches, I will issue a reminder that I only have space to consider the most likely candidates for Euro 2016. These talented young players, and many others, will have their own opportunity to shine at the Olympics this August. PortuGOAL.net will of course be providing full coverage of that tournament.
Ultimately, I believe Portugal’s Euro 2016 fate rests on the strength of its midfield. This point will be made even clearer when we consider Bernardo Silva, Nani, Gonçalo Guedes, Cristiano Ronaldo and the remainder of Portugal’s front-three options in the last part of this series to be posted next week.
by Nathan Motz
