Are we not entertained? Wholesale annihilation of one of this tournament’s weakest squads book-ended by two dissatisfying stalemates. Croatia awaiting in the Round of 32, Spain almost certain to greet us afterward.
Nathan Motz was on hand to witness and experience the visceral tension, listen to supporter’s pain, and rate the individual players during the group phase. Now he presents the top 3 insights gained as Portugal pivot to the knockout rounds.
1. Central defense, not midfield, may be this team’s greatest asset.
Summoning to mind conversations had prior to the tournament, some exclaimed that Rúben Dias – not Ronaldo, Vitinha, João Neves, or Bruno Fernandes – might be this squad’s most important player. And the second might be whomever partners him in central defence.
Prophetic suggestions indeed.
Against DRC, when Dias sat injured, Tomás Araújo can be seen on replay several yards off his man – Wissa – who thumped home the equalizer. Dias’ return, the emergent form of Renato Veiga, and Diogo Costa’s resilient defiance of Colombia have contributed to one of this World Cup’s best defensive records – so far.
Only 5 teams matched or bettered Portugal’s one goal allowed, a figure vastly outperforming their opponents’ cumulative 2.74 xG. This despite being ranked #36/48 teams by defensive pressures, #46/48 in forced turnovers, and about middle in terms of ball recovery time. All numbers strongly indicating poor midfield play – an area of the pitch Portugal were expected to dominate coming into this tournament.
It may shock precisely no one that Portugal ran less as a team than all but 6 nations in the opening phase of this World Cup. Consider finally the amount of middle and attacking-third space gift-wrapped and presented to Portugal’s group stage opponents and it beggars belief how this side have conceded only once.
Neither Nuno Mendes nor João Cancelo have afforded any meaningful protection from the flanks either. Dias and Veiga made one desperate clearance after another against Colombia. In his first action of the tournament vs Colombia, Rúben Neves cleared the ball off the line. The group stage proved we need to see more of Samú Costa or Rúben in the knockout rounds.
Diogo Costa forms the third pillar of Portugal’s resolution. Keen observers will note how significant a confident shot-stopper is at the highest level of international football, as Bono demonstrated in last night’s penalty shootout against the Dutch. Costa, in the true Portuguese spirit, is at his very best when the odds are well and fully against him.
2. Midfield: shocking underperformance or overblown expectations?
Passing accuracy – arguably this tournament’s most rudely exposed statistic. Vitinha completed 100% of his passes against Colombia, for example, and the squad finished 6th in the group stage with 92% collectively. Yet the observable result for all this alleged distribution was extremely difficult to watch, let alone enjoy. Characterless, tame, and risk-avoidant, Martínez’s Portugal played benign keep-away with some of the finest midfield talent in the modern game at its disposal.
But there is a larger mystery - whether the individuals are failing, the tactics are failing, or both. Few at this point are not at least somewhat concerned by Martínez’s gameplan. Possession-centric to a fault, 2026 Portugal against the backdrop of its heroic forebearers look a real farce. But in fairness to its much-criticized manager, only one of Portugal’s midfielders, João Neves, has had his moment so far. The PSG man’s lone goal against DRC now seems a distant memory which frustrates more than anything else.
No, slandering Martínez alone will simply not do. In contrast with bygone eras, Portugal’s current midfield is not temperamental enough. Even Bruno, the squad’s hardest runner so far, lacks his usual competitive angst. There’s too little steel to guard the backline and too little penetration to trouble more accomplished opponents.
Croatia will hardly be charmed by 5-meter lateral passes. Without turning to the absurd, Martínez needs a better strategy and Portugal’s midfielders need to locate their missing courage. Às armas, às armas!
3. Demanding weather means Cristiano Ronaldo’s pitch time must be carefully controlled.
I know, I know – “thank you, Captain Obvious!” But this is not simply about Ronaldo. In Portugal’s current form, whether he plays the full 90 or not will only change so much. Conditions in Miami stadium were grueling and Toronto is facing a significant heatwave this coming week. This team’s physical endurance is one of the worst at this tournament, and Ronaldo has played more minutes than any player not named Diogo Costa.
My case does not stem from emotion concerning Ronaldo’s presence – should he be here, should he not be here, etc. Rotation against Croatia will be of utmost importance because victory earns us a date with Spain less than 4 days later.
Let me be frank – Gonçalo Ramos cannot change this squad’s fate by himself. Neto sparkles then fades…Chico too. João Félix, decent against Colombia, is in the end, well, still João Félix. This team needs Ronaldo. But his capacity to affect the game is constrained. Not only by his age, but by environmental conditions which no one can control.
I am reminded of a seemingly unrelated historical fact. The deadliest killer in any war – ancient or modern – is the environment itself. But specifically extremes of heat and cold kill more soldiers and refugees than the armed forces involved. Miami reduced Cristiano to walking pace in 70 minutes. This tournament will be a war of attrition, and Cristiano can only offer so much in these conditions. Portugal’s duel with the United States in the Amazonian jungle of Manaus in 2014 springs to mind. João Moutinho later said he was finished after 20 minutes.
Finally, consider how Rafael Leão came on against Colombia and showed his marker a clean pair of heels. Is there an opportunity to play him centrally as he did for Milan this season? He would not be relied on to defend and could run with abandon at tired defenders. There are worse alternatives for the final 20 minutes of a difficult match.
But I conclude in the spirit of evaluating what we learned in the group stage. In the queue of Portugal’s most significant problems, what to do about Cristiano is probably number 5 or 6 at worst. He outperformed his xG and finished number 8 in attempts and number 12 in attempts on target – out of every player in this tournament.
Croatia’s defence can be infiltrated. But if he plays every minute, he and Portugal will succumb to the elements. Nature cannot be beaten; it can only be negotiated.
Força Seleção.
