The countdown has started. One month from now Portugal will play their most important match for nigh on four years. On 24 March the Seleção take on Turkey at Porto’s Estádio do Dragão in the World Cup qualification semi-final playoff.
Should they beat the Turks, Fernando Santos’s team will progress to the all-or-nothing final at the same venue on 29 March, in all likelihood against the 4-time World Cup winners and current European champions Italy.
By the time the match (or matches) come around, over four months will have passed since the shock 2-1 defeat against Serbia that relegated Portugal to the playoffs. Since then, players have come in and out of form, and Santos has had plenty of time to study the opposition and ponder his options. PortuGOAL attempts to second guess how the Seleção might set up in the do-or-die matches.
Goalkeeper
Rui Patrício has been a mainstay for Portugal for more than a decade, is the nation’s most capped goalkeeper and has rarely let the Seleção down. That said, the Roma stopper did not cover himself in glory in the ill-fated Serbia encounter, being at fault for the equaliser. More concerning for the 34-year-old perhaps is the emergence of three younger pretenders who are all enjoying excellent seasons at club level. Porto’s Diogo Costa and Granada’s Luís Maximiano have been earning rave reviews for their displays this year, while perhaps more realistically, the brilliant form of José Sá for Wolverhampton Wanderers may give Santos food for thought. Having successfully replaced Patrício at the Molineux stadium, it would not be a huge surprise if the same thing happened at national team level. Another option is to bring in Lyon number one Anthony Lopes, for so long Patricio’s backup, and a player with more experience of high-stakes matches.
Defence
Centre-back has long been a problem position for Portugal, with the lack of alternatives part explaining the remarkable longevity of Pepe and José Fonte, notwithstanding the fine continuing form for the most part of these two stalwarts. However, Pepe has had an injury-hit season and Fonte has looked shaky when given the nod in recent Portugal games, so Santos may be left with little alternative but to bring in a more youthful replacement to line up alongside Rúben Dias. From the Primeira Liga, Sporting’s Gonçalo Inácio or Porto’s January signing Rúben Semedo – if he gets playing time for the Dragons – would appear the most logical options, although the Braga pair of Diogo Leite and David Carmo (just back from long-term injury) or Lille’s Portugal U21 defender Tiago Djaló are possibilities.
As for the full-backs, this is one area where Portugal are spoilt for choice. João Cancelo is widely regarded as one of the world’s best right-backs, but he is suspended for the semi-final. Nélson Semedo, Ricardo Pereira or Diago Dalot, all enjoying fine seasons in England, are high-quality replacements. At left-back, Raphaël Guerreiro has maintained his fine form for Dortmund, but Santos may be tempted to opt for PSG’s outstanding Nuno Mendes. Still only 19 years old, the former Sporting wing-back has not missed a beat in moving to the French giants, looking the part both in domestic play and in big Champions League matches.
Midfield
João Palhinha appeared to have made the defensive midfielder’s position his own by making an instant and positive impact at Euro 2020 and in subsequent matches. But the Sporting holder has had a dip in form recently, coinciding with an upturn in fortunes for tried and trusted pair Danilo at PSG, and especially William at Real Betis. The “Velvet Tank” has drawn lavish praise as a key component driving the La Liga club’s sensational season. Likewise, Matheus Nunes and Rúben Neves have been magnificent for their club sides in recent months. This is another area of the pitch where Santos is spoilt for choice.
Bruno Fernandes has not produced in a Portugal shirt, but he is again showing his world-class quality for Manchester United. Renato Sanches has had more injury troubles this season, but like Palhinha, he has been one of the few players to look the part for the Seleção in recent times. Porto’s wonderfully creative duo of Vitinha and Fábio Vieira may well have played themselves into contention, while the club form of Otávio and João Moutinho also make them viable options.
Attack
Rafael Leão has surely played his way into Santos’s thinking. The tall, powerful, speedy and skilful striker has taken his game to another level this season, proving a lethal weapon in AC Milan’s charge to recapture the glories of bygone times. Diogo Jota and Bernardo Silva are two other players who are regularly featuring in “player of the month” polls this season, with Seleção fans scratching their heads as to why such consistently outstanding talents at club level so often disappoint in a Portugal shirt. While Cristiano Ronaldo finally seems to be proving he is in fact human, he remains a weapon that can still be decisive at any given moment. João Félix remains a frustrating watch. The Atletico Madrid man is inconsistent and injury-prone, but sporadically produces flashes of top-drawer quality. What Félix does in the upcoming Champions League matches could prove crucial for his chances of cracking the Portugal team in March.
Formation
Santos has frequently intimated in the past that he had no intention of introducing a three-at-the-back wing-back system. Given the popularity of this formation in modern-day football, and Portugal’s abundance of high-quality wing-backs, seemingly perfectly suited for such a role (and in many cases used to playing the system for their club teams), Santos’s reluctance to contemplate this tactical approach has been widely discussed in the Portuguese media. In the aftermath of the failure to obtain direct qualification for the 2022 World Cup, with fierce criticism levelled at Santos, the subject arose again, with the veteran coach for the first time suggesting, albeit indirectly, he will be working on new formations.
Something has to give. The definition of madness is doing the same thing over and again and expecting different outcomes. Portugal played 16 matches in 2021, winning 9 of them, but if you remove the “easy pickings” comprising the six victories against Luxembourg (x2), Qatar (x2) and Azerbaijan (x2), the overall record suddenly has a very different look. A return of 3W 4D 3L from 10 matches is a pitiful record for a squad packed with world-class talent. More concerning was the consistently poor performance level, with results often better than the uninspiring football produced.
This article does not intend to argue the merits or lack thereof of Fernando Santos as Portugal’s head coach. That ground has been amply covered over the past 12 months, with a groundswell of opinion that the Engenheiro’s time as manager of the Seleção has run its course. Santos will forever be held in the highest regard having brought the nation its first ever major trophy. His stock has plummeted since the heady summer of 2016, though. A show of innovation and courage could yet result in redemption for Santos, the perfect swansong for Cristiano Ronaldo and the most memorable of years for Portugal.
Possible Portugal line-up v Turkey (João Cancelo and Renato Sanches are suspended)
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By Tom Kundert
