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UEFA Nations League: Portugal v Poland preview

Roberto Martínez’s Portugal are gunning to rubber-stamp their passage to the quarter-finals of the UEFA Nations League tomorrow night at the Estádio do Dragão.

The Seleção need a point against Poland in Porto to book their berth in the last eight of the competition, before travelling to Croatia on Monday when top spot is likely to be decided in the final round of games. PortuGOAL previews the penultimate match for the Seleção in their Group A1 campaign. 

 

Martínez winging it 

Martínez has tweaked his tactics since Euro 2024, namely by playing two pacey wingers in tandem for the majority of minutes in the four matches played since the summer, Rafael Leão on the left and Pedro Neto on the right. Both players have shown flashes of brilliance for club and country this season.

The most impressive team performance came last month, precisely against the Poles when Portugal played some scintillating football on the way to a 3-1 win in Warsaw – a scoreline that flattered the hosts.

Leão, alongside Nuno Mendes, have been among Portugal’s best performers in the Nations League so far, making the left flank a formidable attacking outlet for the Seleção. Leão may be having his ups and downs for Milan under Paulo Fonseca, but the tall wide man was nigh-on unplayable against Poland. Neto will also come into the game full of confidence after his superb strike for Chelsea to earn the Blues a draw against Arsenal last weekend. 

Cristiano Ronaldo has been another bright spot, the captain bagging three goals in the four matches and looking back in the groove after a disappointing European Championship.

All is not perfect for Portugal though. The drab display against Scotland in their last match contrasted sharply with the Poland game just a few days prior, and critics accuse Martínez of being too conservative when selecting the lineup, giving players other than the usual starters little or no chance to show what they can offer.

 

New centre-back partnership in the offing

That will change over the coming two matches as the coach must form a completely new centre-back partnership given that defensive lynchpin Rúben Dias is out injured, as is Sporting’s Gonçalo Inácio, while a third central defender that Martínez has often turned to, António Silva, is badly out of form and currently watching from the sidelines at his club Benfica.

Chelsea centre-back Renato Veiga enjoyed a positive debut against Poland and will almost certainly be in the starting XI, with Benfica’s Tomás Araújo a good bet to join him at the heart of the defence. Midfield anchor-man João Palhinha has had to pull out of the Seleção squad with an injury. 

 

Lewandowski crocked

Poland also have injury problems with star man Robert Lewandowski ruled out due to a back injury, and midfield duo Michael Ameyaw and Przemyslaw Frankowski also unfit to play.

Michal Probierz’s side are in a poor run of form having won just one and lost four of their last seven matches, but are still in with a shout of qualification for the quarter-finals.

Poland are three points behind Croatia. With a seemingly winnable final match at home to Scotland, the Poles will be hoping the Croats slip up in Glasgow and/or at home to Portugal, in which case any points earned tomorrow could make the difference between being eliminated in the group stage or progressing to the knockout phase.

 

Head-to-head record

Portugal and Poland have played each other 14 times in total, the Seleção winning 6 times, with 5 draws and Poland coming out on top on 3 occasions.

Portugal are unbeaten against Poland in their last six encounters, and have enjoyed playing the Polish in the Nations League. In 2018 Portugal drew at home (1-1) and won away (3-2) on their way to winning the inaugural version of the tournament, while the aforementioned 3-1 victory last month in Warsaw was considered by many Portuguese football journalists the finest display by the Seleção under Roberto Martínez.

 

Predicted Portugal lineup v Poland

Diogo Costa, Diogo Dalot, Renato Veiga, Tomás Araújo, Nuno Mendes, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão, Cristiano Ronaldo

By Tom Kundert