What we learned from Portugal’s World Cup 2022 group stage adventure

Three matches, six points, and a date with Switzerland in the Round of 16, Portugal’s group campaign yielded its share of good fruit.

But no team was perfect in the group stage for the first time since the 2010 edition. Rather, the football gods were at their capricious best as humiliating upsets and intrigue dominated the opening phase of this World Cup.

And as the knockout rounds begin today in Qatar, Seleção correspondent Nathan Motz looks back at the best and worst of Portugal’s exploits as they emerged top of the pile in Group H.

1. Lady Luck is Portuguese?

To say otherwise lacks humility. We played some decent football as well, but fortune favored the Seleção in a way I cannot remember in recent times. The events which might have dramatically altered Portugal’s tournament fate?

- The Ronaldo PK: I have heard and understand claims to the contrary, but that penalty was very soft. For me this is not about making drama, just blunt recognition it was lucky. I am not into comparing who got the softer penalty: Messi or Ronaldo. We had made little progress against Ghana to that point. The insanity which ensued afterward notwithstanding, if this goal does not happen it is possible this match continues on and finishes 0-0.

- The Diogo Costa error: if Iñaki Williams does not slip after picking Diogo’s pocket, he scores and that match ends in a draw. Who really knows how we would have played against Uruguay after that?

- Uruguay hit the post then concede a dubious PK: after the Bruno Fernandes opener, Portugal go comatose and let Uruguay come after them. Chances begin piling up and Maxi Gomez hits the upright with a shot from the edge of the penalty area. Imagine that goes in and we do not get what many would consider another debatable penalty? For Gimenez to accidentally have his hand drop into that position while being nutmegged by Bruno Fernandes is just a fluke. But without it we probably do not get the result we needed.

The reader might also point out we lost our star fullback or quibble over the first Ghana goal and Korea’s winner – both of which involved nutmeg passes which ordinarily would not go through. True and fair, luck is dispensed without rhyme or reason, but having watched Portugal in major tournaments over the last two decades, I was surprised at the regularity of our good fortune. And luck is not a strategy.

My main reason for bringing this up, however, is connected to my next observation about Portugal’s group stage performance.

2. We have game management problems, especially protecting a lead.

I almost did not include this section because most supporters already knew this was a problem well before the WC 2022 group stage. But my goodness if this did not become so much more obvious over the last three matches!

Every match we scored first, even taking the lead within five minutes against Korea. And every match Portugal responded by tucking away into their own half as the opposition steadily grew more ambitious. As against Serbia in World Cup qualifying, as against Spain in the UEFA Nations League. However, and rather unlike the aforementioned, in the group stage fortuitous events conspired altering what seemed like certain doom.

I freely concede this is not a hot take, but if anything stops Portugal in their tracks, it is this inability to apply the right solutions for the right game state. But I want to be a bit more nuanced and shift some responsbility from Fernando Santos to the players as well. Goals change the nature of a football match. Psychologically and emotionally the players are returning to the same rut. The degree to which Santos can change that is debatable, but it would be willfully ignorant to assume Santos is coaching this team to shrink away after every goal. That is simply not happening.

But on this evidence, our squad is not built for a protracted defensive stand. Which leads me to my next point.

3. The back four was various degrees of mediocre.

Aside from Nuno Mendes, who was Portugal’s player of the tournament for all of 42 minutes, and Pepe who could probably defend to the death against any opponent in his sleep, the backline was very uninspiring.

João Cancelo has probably received the most criticism, but Rúben Dias, Danilo, and Guerreiro never looked entirely comfortable. Danilo is now injured and may not return, Dias is yellow card-threatened and Guerreiro might actually benefit this team more as a midfielder than a fullback. Diogo Dalot’s cameo against Korea did shine some light in the darkness, and you get the feeling he will factor heavily in Santos’ knockout round plans, but there are just too many holes.

António Silva also played well enough to be considered an option, but aside from individual player competence, I was genuinely concerned by how ordinary our back four were in combination. What I saw from this side in the group stage confirmed that we live and die by our midfield performance: they play well and our defense goes along fairly untested; they play poorly and our backline cannot hold back the attacking waves.

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4. Cristiano makes a good decoy but has to play better, or else.

Before I get any flack for this, I would like to point out that nobody is a bigger supporter of Cristiano Ronaldo than me. This is my objective take – and he showed against Uruguay he can still help this team. The rest of the group stage was really quite poor from him.

I wrote before the tournament that we just need him to facilitate the success of those around him with his movement and smart touches. He does not have to score 4-5 goals this tournament. We do need him to link play and take care of the ball. If he cannot do that, I advise a change. What I saw from him against Uruguay was him at about 90% of what we need. The match vs Korea showed retrogression.

Given his club situation, it is understandable he is not at his best. This is not about his legacy or any other such nonsense and unlike the rest of the international media, I do not have a bone to pick with Ronaldo. We need the best players on the pitch and I hope Ronaldo and Fernando Santos are taking seriously how below-par some of his contributions have been.

In my opinion, the only thing sparing him is our other No.9 options are arguably not a dramatic improvement though I would still like to see more of Gonçalo Ramos.

5. Bruno Fernandes answers the call.

Beyond goals and assists, Bruno just wants it more than anyone else. Effort and desire are clearly not everything, especially at this level, but to this he has added finishing and more composed passing. His metrics are improved. His forward runs are better-timed, his decision-making is improved and he is the one Portugal player capable of taking back initiative when the opposition is on the front foot.

I almost cannot speak it for fear of ruining this moment, but Bruno is becoming Portugal’s Luka Modric. He runs constantly, never lets the opposition get comfortable, and makes every simple play. But he also pops up at the right time in the right place, has a dangerous strike and can play the killer pass too. He is not in the lineage of a Deco or Rui Costa, magnificent savants though they were. He is the modern football manager’s vision of a midfielder: versatile, tireless, but with an edge about him.

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In what many may consider Portugal’s best ever opportunity to win a World Cup, the group stage showed this is a team with some appreciable limitations. It is also clear no nation came through entirely unscathed. Certainly not Spain or England, and definitely not Argentina. Brazil lost Neymar. Germany did not survive the group stages. The Netherlands look ordinary, and in my estimation only France looked a cut above.

And Portugal will face very different opponents going forward. Teams who want more of the ball and allow Portugal more opportunities on the counter. How will Santos tighten the defensive curtain? Will Pahlinha play a role in that process? Can Cristiano Ronaldo, in what may be his last significant appearance on the world stage, make the difference for a squad still in need of his goalscoring prowess? All worrying aside, Portugal have clearly not yet peaked and that is a good thing.

Group H raised a lot of questions which we can only address now in theory, but the practical examination is coming this Tuesday against Switzerland. Three matches in the books, and I have a feeling the Round of 16 will not be our last at this World Cup.

Força Seleção.

by Nathan Motz